Sydney v Collingwood
Friday 7:50pm 
at SCG



One of these sides will be under the microscope after starting the season 0-3
Form
Sydney were forced into debuting three players last week and to their credit held their own against the reigning premiers. Buddy stepped up at 3-quarter time booting 3 of his 4 goals in the space of 5 minutes and that gave the Swans a sniff of victory. Sam Reid was impressive up forward also booting 6 majors though the injury to Kurt Tippett forced him into playing the second ruck role. If Tippett was not injured, there’s every possibility Reid could have kicked 8 and got the Swans home.
Collingwood simply weren’t efficient enough against the Tigers last Thursday. The Pies had 47 more uncontested disposals than the Tigers but their ball use wasn’t as good as the Tigers. The likes of Treloar, Sidebottom and Pendlebury combined for only 7 tackles in this match, the same number as Tigers captain Trent Cotchin laid himself. The Wolf can see that the midfield group seems very happy when they have the ball, but simply don’t work hard enough when the opposition has it.
Stats That Matter
– 6 of the last 7 matches have gone under the game total.
– Collingwood have won 3 of the last 6 against the Swans in Sydney at a POT of 15%.
– Collingwood are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 against the Swans in Sydney.
– These sides average a low 164 points per game in their last 7 matches.
– Swans won the last match at the SCG against the Pies by 80 Points.
– 14 of the last 21 matches at the SCG have gone under the game total.
– Sydney have covered just 3 of their last 8 night games at the SCG.
– Collingwood have won 8 of their last 15 interstate games at night with a POT of 10%.
– Collingwood are 11 from 15 ATS in interstate night games since 2012.
– 12 of the last 15 Interstate night matches involving Collingwood have gone under the game total.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Sydney 0-2, Collingwood 1-1
2017 Over/Under: Sydney 2-0, Collingwood 1-1
What To Expect
The Wolf is expecting to see two sides that are desperate for a win to throw everything at it on Friday night. The Swans are likely to be without Tippett for this clash opening the door for another possible debutant. Sam Naismith may have to ruck solo against Brodie Grundy – a match up that is clearly in favour of the Pies. The Swans improved on their week 1 performance against the Power last week, but will need to improve again to get the 4 points. The Pies head into Sydney with confidence given they have won 3 of the last 6, and with pressure on Nathan Buckley and question marks over the defensive pressure of their midfield, punters can expect a spirited Pies performance here. The Wolf cannot look past the Pies interstate form here and can see this one going down to the wire.
How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney By 2
Recommended Bet
Collingwood +21.5 ($1.91)
Player Markets
The last time these sides met 5 players cracked the 30-disposal mark indicating that both midfields are happy to back themselves in to bet each other. Adam Treloar has been in terrific form averaging 126 fantasy points from his two games alongside teammate Scott Pendlebury who averages 122.5. Pendles has the form on the board against the Swans and in his last 4 against them he averages 31 disposals and 116.5 fantasy points. For the Swans, gun forward Buddy Franklin has kicked 8 goals in the first 2 games of 2017 and is averaging 118.5 fantasy points which is a huge number given the Swans have been beaten in their two games. The Wolf is expecting a tight low scoring contest here so for that reason will steer away from Buddy and will instead be taking Pendles to crack the 110-point fantasy point market.
Recommended Bet
Scott Pendlebury 110+ Fantasy Points 


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