Wednesday April 5, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1
Chelsea
The last thing Antonio Conte would have wanted in his quest for the Premier League title was a home defeat toCrystal Palace ahead of such a tough game here, but that's what he got and now his Chelsea side need to stop the rot - Tottenham are officially breathing down their necks.
It wasn't a dreadful performance from the Blues in that defeat last time out, it was more a case of 'one of those days' - they did everything but equalise, and had they done so they'd have probably gone on to win the game. That said though, it wasn't the first time in football history that an international break has scuppered a team's momentum, and Conte's side need to apply themselves again and bounce back against Pep Guardiola's talented team.
Victor Moses is a doubt as he struggles to shake off a calf injury, but other than that Chelsea have a full-strength squad.
Man City
The newspapers are packed full of information about the players Guardiola wants to sign this summer, and that should tell its own story of their season, and particularly the problems they've had defensively. True, they haven't conceded quite as many as the hype would have you believe, but they are on course to concede around the same amount as last season, a season that saw them finish fourth.
The Citizens were able to pick up a point at the Emirates at the weekend, in a strange game. Neither side seemed hugely motivated to really push for a winner at such a key stage of the season which was odd, and if they want any chance at all of getting close to the league leadersbetween now and May they really need to win here. If they do, the gap is cut to eight points, which, with eight games left isn't insurmountable.
City have no new injuries to contend with, but Bacary Sagna could be back in contention after a picking up a knock against Liverpool.
Match Odds
I'm tempted to go with Chelsea here at a chunky price of2.44. Conte will have be drumming the 'refocus' message into his charges since that reversal on Saturday and there is no doubt that, on balance, Chelsea are a better team than City and they also have home advantage. So a healthy odds-against price on a team that have won no fewer than 12 of their 14 home games this season isn't to be sniffed at.
On the hand, I don't know if this is the start of a wobble for Chelsea, and I'm not sure I want to pay to find out. Guardiola's men are clearly capable of beating anyone on their day. 3.15 is the price on them to win, and the Draw is available at 3.55.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The last three between these two have all gone over 2.5, but Opta tell us that overall the average yield is just 2.44 goals. I'm tempted to side with Overs though, regardless. City can't defend in the big games, and as I've already said, more recently this has been a fixture heavy on entertainment value. 1.83 on three goals or more floats my boat.
Unders is available at 2.20.
Referee Watch
Mike Dean takes charge for this one and dishes out quite a high proportion of yellow cards, when compared to his refereeing colleagues. He's also shown more red cards than any other referee in the league. In such a high-stakes game at this stage of the season, it might be worth backing over 4.5 cards at the best price you can get nearer to kick off. Anything around 2.00 would be worth a shout. Don't forget, there have been four red cards in the last five games between these two.
Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.83
Back Over 4.5 Cards at 2.00 or better
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