Newcastle Knights v Canterbury Bulldogs
Friday, April 7, 6pm (AEST), McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Knights took the defending premiers to the wire last week, before a James Maloney field goal broke their hearts in the 19-18 defeat to the Sharks. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs returned to the winner’s circle with a 10-7 victory over the Broncos in tough conditions. The Knights are a shadow of the side that became the 2016 easy-beats and will be a stern test for the travelling Bulldogs here.
History
The Knights have lost their last three clashes against the Bulldogs, but the margin has been 4 or less in two of those fixtures. The Bulldogs won last year’s clash in Newcastle by 28-14. Knights fullback Brendan Elliott crossed for a double in a beaten side. The last five between the two teams have failed to break 42.
The Knights have lost their last three clashes against the Bulldogs, but the margin has been 4 or less in two of those fixtures. The Bulldogs won last year’s clash in Newcastle by 28-14. Knights fullback Brendan Elliott crossed for a double in a beaten side. The last five between the two teams have failed to break 42.
Form
Newcastle are 1-4 and have dropped their last three but have been competitive in all but one of their games. They come into this off an impressive performance where they went down to defending premiers Cronulla by just one point at Shark Park. Canterbury have won two of their last three including an impressive Round 5 win over Brisbane 10-7 where conditions certainly helped. A shocking loss to Manly two weeks back certainly spurred an improved effort.
Newcastle are 1-4 and have dropped their last three but have been competitive in all but one of their games. They come into this off an impressive performance where they went down to defending premiers Cronulla by just one point at Shark Park. Canterbury have won two of their last three including an impressive Round 5 win over Brisbane 10-7 where conditions certainly helped. A shocking loss to Manly two weeks back certainly spurred an improved effort.
Key Matchup
Brock Lamb v Josh Reynolds. Lamb continues to be a solid performer for the Knights and has four try-assists for the season so far. He looks a good prospect and 2017 will continue to be a learning curve. It’s no coincidence that Reynolds played his best match of the season for the Bulldogs, with Moses Mbye missing through suspension. He was allowed to play his natural game by running the ball and was one of the best in the win over the Broncos, scoring a try in the process.
Brock Lamb v Josh Reynolds. Lamb continues to be a solid performer for the Knights and has four try-assists for the season so far. He looks a good prospect and 2017 will continue to be a learning curve. It’s no coincidence that Reynolds played his best match of the season for the Bulldogs, with Moses Mbye missing through suspension. He was allowed to play his natural game by running the ball and was one of the best in the win over the Broncos, scoring a try in the process.
Stats That Matter
Newcastle are 3-2 ATS with a 3-2 under number while Canterbury are 3-2 ATS with a 4-1 under number. Home underdogs of 4.5 or more are 65-27 ATS since 2008 in the first eight rounds of the season and 31-16 ATS Rounds 5-8. Home underdogs of 4.5 or more who scored 22 are 35-11 ATS Rounds 1-8. The Knights are 10-5 under getting 4.5 or more at home since 2014 while they are 4-1 ATS and under at night in the situation. Canterbury are 16-8 under at night away from ANZ while they are 16-24 ATS away from the ground since 2014. Canterbury are 4-13 ATS as a favourite away from ANZ over the same time with a 13-4 under record. The last five between the two teams have failed to break 42.
Newcastle are 3-2 ATS with a 3-2 under number while Canterbury are 3-2 ATS with a 4-1 under number. Home underdogs of 4.5 or more are 65-27 ATS since 2008 in the first eight rounds of the season and 31-16 ATS Rounds 5-8. Home underdogs of 4.5 or more who scored 22 are 35-11 ATS Rounds 1-8. The Knights are 10-5 under getting 4.5 or more at home since 2014 while they are 4-1 ATS and under at night in the situation. Canterbury are 16-8 under at night away from ANZ while they are 16-24 ATS away from the ground since 2014. Canterbury are 4-13 ATS as a favourite away from ANZ over the same time with a 13-4 under record. The last five between the two teams have failed to break 42.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf is predicting the Bulldogs to grind out a win, but the converted try start for the Knights will be too big for the Bulldogs to cover. The Knights are playing tough and committed football, but the Dogs forward pack has a clear advantage here.
The Wolf is predicting the Bulldogs to grind out a win, but the converted try start for the Knights will be too big for the Bulldogs to cover. The Knights are playing tough and committed football, but the Dogs forward pack has a clear advantage here.
How It’s Shaping Up
Canterbury by 2
Canterbury by 2
Best Bet
Newcastle +6 ($1.91)
Newcastle +6 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 42 ($1.88)
Under 42 ($1.88)
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