Swansea City v Middlesbrough: Boro to break a season's bad habit in fight for survival

Swansea v Middlesbrough
Sunday 2nd April, 1.30pm
Live on Sky Sports 1

A lot has changed for both these sides since they last met in December. That game, a 3-0 triumph for Middlesbrough at the Riverside, was their last win in the Premier League and one that saw them rise to the heady heights of 14th in the table. For Swansea, it was one of their lowest points of the season and one of the final nails in the coffin for manager Bob Bradley.

Swansea

The appointment of Paul Clement in south Wales has transformed the atmosphere around the club. A run of five wins in 10 games since the turn of the year and Premier League football next season looks more likely than not. Swansea are 17th in the table - three points clear of Hull in 18th - and having been as low as 1.34 are now 4.60 to be relegated.

Their turnaround has been driven by performances at the Liberty Stadium - three wins in four since Clement took charge - and the form of Gylfi Sigurdsson. The midfielder has been directly involved in 53% of his side's goals this season - only Jermain Defoe (67% for Sunderland) has a more talismanic role for his team. Sigurdsson's service for Fernando Llorente up front and Alfie Mawson who has popped up with some important goals from defence should help the Swans stay up.

Middlesbrough

Boro have been on an awful run since the reverse fixture. Eleven games without a win and only four goals in their favour culminated in the departure of Aitor Karanka as manager. The Spaniard's assistant Steve Agnew has been appointed in his place as caretaker.

There was an immediate improvement in their last match against Manchester United. The reintroduction of Stewart Downing and a clear intent to attack was a refreshing change from some of the turgid football on display under Agnew's predecessor. Boro even played with two men up front in the latter stages of the game - with Rudy Gestede coming on to partner Alvaro Negredo - a change which resulted in a goal, something of a rarity for them this season. In truth, they were unlucky to leave that game without a point - albeit against an injury-ravaged United.

Boro will be hoping that Agnew can have a similar impact to that of Clement at Swansea although there is a sense they may have left it too late. Their run of four defeats in five games has seen them slip to 19th in the table and five points adrift of Sunday's rivals. They are 1.23 to go down.

Match Odds

It will be interesting to see how the international break has affected Boro. Agnew has had two weeks to impart his own style on the team and we should expect them to show more of that attacking spirit from their last outing.

Swansea come off this one with two disappointing away defeats to Hull and Bournemouth but a return home sees Clement's side installed as favourites at 2.06. They were perhaps unlucky to concede their first goal against the Cherries and failed to capitalise on some glorious chances at the KCOM so either of those results could have gone the other way.

As it is, the Swans are only five points clear of Boro and Sunday's visitors have a game in hand. Clement will be eyeing it up as a real chance to put distance between his side and the relegation zone while Agnew will know that a win for Boro - at odds of 4.30 - will put his team back in control of their own destiny.

A draw - something which has not happened in Swansea's last 18 matches - at odds of 3.50 does not really suit either side in this big six-pointer.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The goal scoring stats for Boro this season do not make for pleasant reading. Agnew's men have averaged just 2.4 shots on target per match - the lowest of any side in Europe's top five leagues. They have drawn five matches 0-0 - more than any side in the Premier League - and they have the lowest goals tally in the league at 20. It is their defence - having conceded just 33 goals (better records than Arsenal and Liverpool) that means they are not in an even more perilous state.

If they are to change their habits then Swansea will be the team to do it against. For all that Boro have been awful for the neutrals to watch, Swansea have been the most entertaining. The Swans' games this season have witnessed 99 goals (3.4 per game) - higher than any other Premier League team. They will also be without right-back Angel Rangel and Martin Olsson is a doubt on the other flank.

While the stats seem to go against there being goals for Boro they do not take into account their new manager and current position in the table. In the likes of Negredo, Gestede, Downing, Marten De Roon and Gaston Ramirez, the Teessiders have better attacking players than their goals tally suggests. They showed a lot more attacking intent in their last game and really need to start picking up wins at this stage of the season. Do not be surprised to see over 2.5 goals scored at odds of 2.30.

Referee

Bobby Madley will take charge of Sunday's early kick-off. The Yorkshireman has officiated 27 games this season - dishing out 111 yellows and three red cards.

Recommended Bets

Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.30