Man City v Hull: Goals may be slow to flow again at the Etihad

Man City v Hull
Saturday 8 April, 15:00

Man City

City's 2-1 defeat at Chelsea on Wednesday night made them the only losers among the top seven in midweek and leaves them in fourth place on 58 points as the race for Champions League places heats up.

Pep Guardiola's side are two points behind third-placed Liverpool with a game in hand, but they must also be looking nervously behind them at Arsenal and Manchester United, who could both move a point behind City if they win their own games in hand.

Vincent Kompany and Fabian Delph both returned to the starting team against Chelsea and played the full 90 minutes. Raheem Sterling, who came on as a 79th-minute substitute at Stamford Bridge, is likely to be a starter this time.

Hull

Remarkably, Hull moved out of the relegation zone after Wednesday's 4-2 home win over Middlesbrough. They are now 17th, with a two-point gap back to Swansea in 18th.

Hull's home form under Marco Silva is tremendous (16 points from a possible 18) but their away form for the new manager is the polar opposite (one point from 15 and just one goal scored).

The big worry for Hull is striker Abel Hernandez, who was forced off with an injury against Boro. Tom Huddlestone is serving the final match of his suspension.

Match Odds

City are strong favourites and there is not much doubt about their credentials. Most of their difficulties have been against the top seven and their overall record against the rest is W15 D3 L1, although most of the poorer results have been at home (draws against Southampton, Middlesbrough and Stoke).

That leaves them with a home record of W6 D3 L0 against the rest and punters must be mindful that Guardiola's side had a goalless draw against Stoke in their last home game in that category, and that Hull's only good result on the road under Silva was a 0-0 at City's neighbours United.

The question with Hull is whether they can bring their good form from the KCOM Stadium on their travels. There has been no sign of that as yet, but moving out of the relegation zone for the first time since October may instil fresh confidence in their abilities and Silva's game plan.

If that is the case, they could be more dangerous than expected. Hull have scored freely at home, netting at least two goals in six of their seven matches under Silva (including cups), but their only away goals for him have been in a 3-1 loss at Leicester (after taking the lead) and a 4-1 FA Cup defeat at Fulham.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

City are joint-third for matches with over 2.5 goals (20 out of 30), although the proportion drops to 57% (eight out of 14) at home.

Hull are the opposite, with higher figures at home where their form is much stronger, but eight out of 15 (53%) under 2.5 goals on the road.

Those respective figures reflect both City's struggles to impose themselves at home and Hull's low scoring tally on the road.

Hull's ability to score could be a key factor. City's home figures rise in matches where they concede (seven out of 11 over 2.5 goals) and Hull have had four out of six over 2.5 goals when scoring away.

Half With Most Goals

This offers an opportunity for a bet at reasonable odds, arguably bigger than they should be, whereas there is a far from clear case for other options such as the Half Time/Full Time, City on the handicap and even the City win to nil now that Hull have new-found confidence.

The expectation is that Silva, like most visiting managers, will set up his side to frustrate City and it would be no surprise if Hull had initial success and there was none or one goal in the first half.

There is a body of evidence on both sides that indicates most of the goals might come later in the match. In City's 14 home games, most goals have been scored in the second half eight times (the first half has never won) and nine of Hull's 15 away games have had most goals after the break.

The tie is a runner in this market but, in the belief that City will eventually make their superior quality count, most goals in the second half is decent value at 1.98.

Ref Watch

Jonathan Moss tends towards higher card counts, with almost half of his 23 Premier League games this season having had 45 bookings points or more (six others have been close to that mark with 40).

Recommended Bet
Back Second Half at 1.98 in Half With Most Goals