AFL Preview: Suns v Hawks

Gold Coast v Hawthorn
Sunday 4:40pm
at Metricon Stadium

Are the Suns going to show us any good football in 2017?

Form

Gold Coast has undoubtedly been the most disappointing side of 2017. They lost at home to Brisbane in round 1 before being hammered by GWS to the tune of 102 points. They were belted in the clearances 43-30 and more alarmingly lost the contested possession count by 36. When you lose the contested possession count by that much it comes down to desire, and until the Suns show some it is very hard to back them.

The Hawks have ran into two sides on fire so far in season 2017 in Essendon and Adelaide. They are 0-2 but by no means playing bad football. They led the Crows at half time before being out classed by the Crows small forwards. They amassed 42 more disposals than the Crows and broke even in the contested possession department, which is an area that they have lacked in over recent years. Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara have found their feet since joining them and the Wolf can see a win is not too far away.

Stats That Matter

– Gold Coast are 4 from 6 ATS playing Hawthorn.
– Gold Coast has not scored over 63 points in their last 4 matches against Hawthorn.
– Gold Coast average 61.5 points in their last 6 against Hawthorn.
– Hawthorn have played at Metricon only once, scoring 148 points against the Suns in 2014.
– Hawthorn are 6-0 straight up against Gold Coast with a POT of 7%.
– $1.17 is the biggest price Hawthorn has started against Gold Coast.
– Hawthorn average 115 points per game in their last 6 against Gold Coast.
– Hawthorn are 15 from 20 straight up in Interstate matches against all opposition since 2015.

Betting Data

2017 Line: Gold Coast 0-2, Hawthorn 0-2
2017 Over/Under: Gold Coast 2-0, Hawthorn 2-0

What To Expect

Heading into the season there were high hopes for a Suns side that are well overdue to play finals footy. Those thoughts have been quickly been diminished after their effort in the opening two rounds of 2017. Normally we would expect a side coming off a 100-point defeat to show some heart early on though the Wolf gets the feeling the Suns just isn’t that team. They play carefree football and until there is some effort or heart shown the Wolf is staying right away from the boys from the Gold Coast. They average a low 63 points in their last 4 against the Hawks and all key indicators point to another tough outing here. Hawthorn will be desperate to chalk up their first win and they have the form on the board against the Suns to do so. They are undefeated in 6 matches against the Suns, which includes some big victories as they average 115 points per game in this winning streak. They will miss Grant Birchall through injury but have enough class across the park to win comfortably here. The Wolf can see Rioli, Breust and Puopolo put on a clinic here, as the Suns small defenders in Joyce, Saad and Kolodjashnji just aren’t good enough defensively.

How It’s Shaping Up

Hawthorn By 28

Recommended Bet

Hawthorn -20.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

Gary Ablett has had a mixed start to 2017 with 28 disposals in round 1 and just the 16 last week against the Giants. He looked to be carrying another injury as his movement and effort just wasn’t there. He has a great recent record against the Hawks though, averaging 42.5 disposals in is last two. Given his run with a crippling shoulder injury he is one the Wolf will be keeping an eye on but can’t put my hard earned on him just yet.

Tom Mitchell has been on fire so far in 2017, averaging 37.5 disposals, 5.5 marks, 5.5 tackles and 126.5 fantasy points per game. He looks a sure thing to score over 120 points again here as the Suns have given up 7 100+ scores in 2 games so far.

The one player that has caught the Wolfs eye though is Luke Hodge. Hodge will be floating across halfback and through the middle and if recent history is a guide, will have a lot of the ball. In his last 3 against the Suns, Hodge averages 28 disposals, 5.3 marks, 5.3 tackles, 1.3 goals and 121.3 points per game. The Wolf can see this continuing against an unaccountable Suns outfit and will be all over Hodge to score 110+ points here at good odds.

Recommended Bet
Luke Hodge 110+ Fantasy Points ($4.00)