Cagliari v Torino
Sunday, 14:00
Torino did the job for us again last weekend, as their run of games featuring over 3.5 goals in Serie A stretched to 8: now they face a Cagliari side who, at home at least, have been a byword for goals this season, and with the prices once more in their favour, I can't do anything other than back over 3.5 goals here at 2.70.
Cagliari's last home game was a 0-0 draw against Lazio, but that's unlikely to happen against a Torino team that has conceded in each of their last 11 matches, and this is one of those fixtures in which it's worth looking at the over 5.5 and over 6.5 markets. It could get silly.
Torino have a terrible away record, and I think that Cagliari might rediscover their goalscoring form in this one. They've been a little shot shy in recent weeks, but will be encouraged by the space afforded them by Sinisa Mihajlovic's team.
This game features the side with the best shooting accuracy in Serie A this season (Cagliari, with 53%) against the side with the joint best shot conversion rate: those statistics suggest goals, and the likely reality backs that up.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Cagliari v Torino @ 2.70
Sunday, 14:00
Torino did the job for us again last weekend, as their run of games featuring over 3.5 goals in Serie A stretched to 8: now they face a Cagliari side who, at home at least, have been a byword for goals this season, and with the prices once more in their favour, I can't do anything other than back over 3.5 goals here at 2.70.
Cagliari's last home game was a 0-0 draw against Lazio, but that's unlikely to happen against a Torino team that has conceded in each of their last 11 matches, and this is one of those fixtures in which it's worth looking at the over 5.5 and over 6.5 markets. It could get silly.
Torino have a terrible away record, and I think that Cagliari might rediscover their goalscoring form in this one. They've been a little shot shy in recent weeks, but will be encouraged by the space afforded them by Sinisa Mihajlovic's team.
This game features the side with the best shooting accuracy in Serie A this season (Cagliari, with 53%) against the side with the joint best shot conversion rate: those statistics suggest goals, and the likely reality backs that up.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Cagliari v Torino @ 2.70
Lazio v Napoli
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3
Napoli did well to fight back against Juventus last week, and emerge from a difficult game with a draw. They'll be tested again at Lazio, who have won five of their last six matches, and who qualified for the Coppa Italia final in midweek, putting out Roma.
Simone Inzaghi's team has been hugely impressive this season, and they're outsiders here at 2.82 to beat Maurizio Sarri's Napoli. Lazio drew 1-1 at the San Paolo earlier in the season, and they are exactly the kind of team which has given Napoli nightmares this campaign. Defensively organised, good at denying space, hard to play against.
Napoli have lost only twice away from home this season, at Atalanta and Juventus, but I think they could struggle at the Olimpico. They beat Roma here, but I expect this to be a slow tempo game, with Lazio happy to make life difficult, and they have a striker in Ciro Immobile who can break Neapolitan hearts.
Napoli are on a run of five consecutive away wins, but that has to come to an end sometime, and given that Lazio are top of the Serie A form league over the last five games, there's every chance that it will be here.
Recommended Bet
Back Lazio to beat Napoli @ 2.82
Empoli v Pescara
Saturday, 14:00
Empoli start their early Saturday afternoon game against Pescara as odds on favourites. Given that they've lost a club record seven games in a row, it has to be worth looking at Pescara to get something from their trip to Tuscany.
Pescara have been poor all term, but Empoli have been pitiful since the turn of the year, and are now only five points clear of the final relegation spot. In any sensible Serie A season, Empoli would be in a world of trouble, but the ineptitude of others keeps them in with a strong chance of staying up.
Empoli have scored only 17 goals this season, have failed to score in 19 games, and while they won 4-0 at Pescara earlier in the campaign, I can't find any reason to justify supporting them at odds on.
I appreciate that I'm taking a leap of faith with Pescara, but they have been rejuvenated to an extent by Zdenek Zeman, playing with more fluency, losing 4 of his 6 games in charge, but drawing against Milan last time. A result which shows what they're capable of.
Pescara are 4.50 to win, which is probably a leap of faith too far, but I'm happy to lay Empoli at 1.90, and hope that Pescara can repeat their performance of last week.
Recommended Bet
Lay Empoli against Pescara @ 1.90
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