Hawthorn v Brisbane
Saturday 1:15pm
at University Of Tasmania Stadium

Hawthorn and Brisbane both sit in the bottom three of the ladder with both teams in desperate need of a win.
Hawthorn dropped their opening four games of the 2017 season but have mixed their form since with impressive upset wins over West Coast and Melbourne sandwiching a hideous defeat at the hands of St Kilda. The Hawks rank bottom three in both attack and defence scoring 95 points just once all season while conceding 110-plus on five occasions.
Brisbane shocked Gold Coast in their season opener and have then proceeded to drop six straight games. They are now anchored on the bottom of the ladder with the worst defence and the fourth worst attack. The Lions have conceded 119-plus in their last four with their last six losses coming by margins of 27 or more.
Stats That Matter
– Hawthorn have won seven straight against Brisbane, all by margins of 42 or greater.
– The Hawks have posted 134 or more in their last five against the Lions.
– The Lions last scored 100 against the Hawks in 2008.
– Since 2012 all five Hawks-Lions games have gone over the total.
– Hawthorn have won 19 of 21 games in Launceston since 2012 but have failed to cover their last five at the ground including an 85-point loss at the ground to St Kilda just two weeks back.
– The Hawks are 4-8 ATS when favoured by 40-plus at the ground.
– Hawthorn have covered just 2 of their last 9 when favoured by more than five goals.
– Brisbane are 22-31 ATS interstate since 2012 but have covered 2 of 3 this year.
– The Lions have covered just 12 of their last 36 when an outsider interstate of five goals or more.
– Interstate outsiders of 40 or more off a loss of 40 or more cover at just 42%.
– The Lions are 33-18 over off a loss of 40 or more.
– The Lions have gone over the total in 12 of their last 17 day matches.
– Hawthorn have covered just 3 of their last 15 day matches.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Hawthorn 2-5, Brisbane 3-4
2017 Over-Under: Hawthorn 2-5, Brisbane 4-3
What To Expect
It is hard to see the hapless Lions being able to challenge the Hawks in this one but the line of 42.5 seems to be close to spot on. The best play in this one though is the over. The last five matches between the Hawks and Lions have gone over the total, the Lions are a big over team off a bad loss and in day matches the Hawks typically rack up big scores against Brisbane. This game should easily shoot past 200 points.
How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 39
Recommended Bet
Over 193.5 ($1.87)
Player Markets
Tom Mitchell has been an fantasy fillup this year with an average of 125.1 and a low of 115 this year. Mitchell should be in for a fat day against the Lions and off a season-high haul of 136 looks set to cover the 130 score with some ease.
Recommended Bet
Tom Mitchell 130+ Fantasy Points ($1.90) 

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