Fulham v Reading
Saturday 13th May, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Fulham


Fulham forced their way into the Championship top-six thanks to an unrivalled run of results from November onwards. The Cottagers accrued more points than any of their divisional rivals across the final 31 games (W18-D8-L5) whilst boasting a monumental +31 goal difference.

Slavisa Jokanovic's free-scoring side have been installed as promotion favourites and should the Whites be at their barnstorming best they'll be tough to stop. However, only one side in the past 11 seasons has finished sixth and won promotion via the play-offs in the second-tier.

Fulham's tally of 10 home wins is the lowest of any side that finished in the top-13 but it's the manner of their scintillating displays that's caught the eye of Championship fans. And with a clean bill of health, the capital club should be primed for the challenge ahead.

Striker Chris Martin is available again after suspension whilst Ryan Fredericks and Stefan Johansen are also set to return after being rested last weekend.

Reading

Reading are hoping to make it sixth time lucky in the play-offs having failed to win promotion in five previous ventures into the end-of-season tournament. And the trends are onside with the third-place finishers enjoying 10/28 (36%) promotions - the best across the four positions.

The Royals have defied all possible performance data to finish third; Jaap Stam's side feature in the bottom-four across shots, shots on-target, shots in the box and expected goal ratio tables in the Championship and only won the shot count in 16/46 (35%) of their matches.

The first goal of this tie could prove pivotal; Reading have scored first on 26 occasions - winning 24 of those encounters - and are experts in game management once ahead. However, the Berkshire boys have often folded when falling behind, resulting in a number of heavy defeats on the road.

Stam must decide whether to stick with his back-three here or revert to a four-man defence and his decision is likely to reside on the fitness of both skipper Paul McShane and midfielder Joey van den Berg, both of whom returned from injury last week. Elsewhere, Gareth McCleary is rated a major doubt.

Match Odds

Fulham thrashed Reading 5-0 at Craven Cottage in December to make it a hat-trick of victories over the Royals on the banks of the River Thames. And the hosts have W3-D1-L1 in their last five Championship meetings across all venues.

The Whites are skinny 1.67 favourites to clinch a first leg lead and arrive having picked up 16 points from a possible 18 to conclude their campaign. Jokanovic's men were the joint-top scorers in the Championship but did claim only two triumphs in their final six outings at the Cottage.

Reading 5.60 are a big price for a side that finished third and ended the regular season with an impressive W9-D0-L2 record. But the Royals were beaten in nine of their 10 visits to top-11 teams and Stam's charges shipped 48 goals in their away days - only rock-bottom Rotherham leaked more.

With the odds on a home success too skinny, I'm going to add Over 2.5 Goals into the mix and back Fulham to win at odds-against quotes of 13/10.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Fulham scored 45 goals in their 23 home fixtures this term and notched an eye-boggling three goals or more in eight of their final 17 matches. Unsurprisingly, the Cottagers crossed the Over 2.5 Goals 1.75 mark in 13 of those encounters.

Both Teams To Score 1.79 has obliged in 13 of Fulham's most recent 15 games and that's a return that should inspire Reading to get forward. Seven of the visitors 10 trips to the top-11 broke the Over 2.5 Goals making goals the obvious play.

Head-to-head fans will also have been encouraged by the fact each of the previous five duels between these two in the capital have produced at least three goals.

Recommended Bets

Back Fulham to win and Over 2.5 Goals @ [13/10]



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