Man City v Leicester: Foxes can cause an upset if they bring A game

Man City v Leicester
Saturday 13 May, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Man City

Pep Guardiola's side are in pole position to finish third, having moved to a point behind Liverpool with a game in hand, but they have to keep winning to fend off Arsenal's late thrust for a Champions League place. The Gunners are fifth, three points behind City having played the same number of matches.

Leicester

Craig Shakespeare has steered Leicester to safety after last week's 3-0 home win over Watford, which combined with other results to ensure the threat of relegation was finally gone.

A top-half finish is now a live possibility for the Foxes, who lie ninth on 43 points and have a game in hand on most teams in the bottom half of the table.

Match Odds

This fixture last season was one of the best matches in Leicester's title-winning charge as they took a thrilling 3-1 victory that confirmed them as genuine championship contenders. And even during this season's struggles under Claudio Ranieri, the Foxes beat City 4-2 at home in December thanks to a Jamie Vardy hat-trick.

The talent is still there to make them a big threat to City's ambitions again, but the question is whether Shakespeare's side will bring their A game. Is the prospect of securing the full-time job for the caretaker boss enough motivation for them?

City are the team with everything to play for and last week's 5-0 demolition of Crystal Palace showed them at their best, albeit coming only six days after their unimpressive 2-2 draw at second-bottom Middlesbrough.

City's weak point has been their home record, with barely a 50% per cent win rate (nine wins out of 17), and they have won only one out of seven at home to current top-half teams. With Leicester now in that group, which probably is a good reflection of their quality, this is a potential banana skin for Guardiola's side.

Draw No Bet

Leicester look worth chancing, as few teams have such capability of bringing off a big-priced upset against City. The draw/Leicester double chance is worth considering at 4.50 but it is worth taking a small reduction on the win odds to have the draw just as an insurance policy.

Of course it could go horribly wrong if Leicester turn out not to be bothered and City have one of their hot days, but there are ifs associated with backing City at short odds and Leicester at 11.00 on the draw no bet is worth a shot.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 goals is short at 1.40, although it is difficult to go against that as the logical outcome.

City are top for matches with over 2.5 goals (69%) and Leicester are fifth (63%), although it is worth noting that City's difficulties at home mean their rate falls to 59% at the Etihad.

Ref Watch

Bobby Madley had a glut of high card counts early in the season but his games are now most likely to be in the 30-40 bookings points bracket.

Recommended Bet

Back Leicester on Draw No Bet at 11.00