Brentford 2.56 v Blackburn 2.80; The Draw 3.70

Welcome to the last day of the regulation season, in my opinion the toughest round of fixtures of the whole campaign. Most of the games are dead rubbers, and those are devilishly hard to predict, while the markets favour heavily the clubs that need a win in the games with something riding on them.

In recent weeks I've stuck to games that have had some meaning, and I've largely been with the teams that had something to play for. But I think it's a bit different on the very last day of the season. Those clubs that need to win will be under enormous pressure and I actually think there's some merit in opposing them given how unusually short they are in the Match Odds market.

Take Blackburn for example. They are trading at 2.80 simply because they have to win to have any chance of avoiding relegation. Given the form of Brentford at Griffin Park then on a 'normal' match day Dean Smith's men would be odds-on at home to a club in the relegation zone.

So let's back the Bees at an extremely generous 2.56. In fact, let's make them our best bet of the day.

Brentford have enjoyed a terrific campaign and could finish as high as eighth with a victory over Rovers, and they go into the game on the back of four straight home wins, scoring 11 goals in the process which included a 4-0 thrashing of Derby, and a 2-0 win over then play-off contenders Leeds.

Last weekend the Bees travelled to in-form Fulham with effectively nothing to play for, but they put in a very good performance to draw the match so I have no worries about their motivation and desire ahead of Sunday's final game of the season.

Recommended Bets
Back Brentford to Win @ 2.56
 (best bet)

Sheff Wed 2.38 v Fulham 3.10; The Draw 3.60

I'm absolutely fascinated by this game because I genuinely believe neither of the sides will be too fussed about busting a gut to win it.

Fulham are sixth in the table and will finish sixth regardless of Sunday's result at Hillsborough, so I'm pretty confident Slavisa Jokanovic will rest a huge chunk of his usual starting XI ahead of the play-offs.

With a draw or a win - depending on the Reading result - Sheffield Wednesday could finish third in the table, and that would mean they face the Cottagers again in those play-offs, but I'm not sure they'd want that. I'm pretty confident both Fulham and the Owls will see Reading and Huddersfield as slightly easier semi-final opponents.

Of course, Fulham's fringe players - should Jokanovic indeed rest his usual starting XI - will want to put in a performance good enough to catch their manager's eye, so if I was going for any result in the Match Odds I'd just favour the away team at 3.10. I'm pretty confident Sheff Wed would be happy with that outcome also!

I think Owls boss Carlos Carvalhal will be more than satisfied to finish fourth or fifth in the table meaning his men will avoid Fulham in the play-off semi-finals.

It's a really fascinating contest which I believe will start in a very pedestrian fashion. I'm certain both sets of players and staff will have eyes and ears on the games featuring the other play-off contenders, and if everything is going to plan then these two will be happy to just play out a lifeless game.

I could be completely wrong of course; this game might easily finish 4-4 just as much as it will 0-0, but I just can't back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.66. Quite the opposite in fact, Under 2.5 Goals has to be the call.
Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.30

Brisol City 2.70 v Birmingham 2.70; The Draw 3.80

This is another game where I have to back the home team purely because they're a bigger price than they would be if this wasn't the last game of the season.

The reason of course is that Birmingham are not yet safe from relegation; should they fail to win and both Blackburn and Forest collect three points then Harry Redknapp's men will be playing League One football next season.

But just because you need, and set out, to win doesn't mean you will get the victory, and it certainly doesn't mean you should almost be trading as favourites when you're playing away to a bang in form team.

Bristol City have taken 13 points from the last 15 available and last weekend - when they were already guaranteed Championship safety - they won 1-0 at title contenders Brighton. Lee Johnson's men have also been superb at Ashton Gate recently, scoring 12 goals in recording four consecutive victories over Huddersfield, Wolves, QPR, and Barnsley.

Birmingham on the other hand have won just one of their last 10, that coming against a much weakened Huddersfield team, so I just can't back them to win this match at their current price.

You also have to factor in that Birmingham are by far the most likely club of the three - Blackburn and Nottm Forest being the others - to survive. They can only go down if those other two clubs both win, so if at any point during this match they learn that either Rovers or Forest are losing - and remember we've napped Brentford to beat Rovers - then their own performance levels might drop considerably knowing that they're safe.

All things considered then I simply have to back the home win.

Recommended Bet
Back Bristol City to Win @ 2.70

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