Adelaide v Melbourne
Saturday 7:40pm at Adelaide Oval

Adelaide’s magic start to the season came to a thundering halt in Tasmania against the Kangaroos and they will look to fight back against an inconsistent Melbourne team in desperate need of a win.
Adelaide opened their season with six straight wins – four by margins of greater than 56 – but suffered a difficult loss in Hobart last week, going down to the Kangaroos by 59 points. The Crows are clear top in attack with 127ppg but rank 10th in defence conceding 92ppg. Adelaide have posted 140 points in four of seven games.
Melbourne started the year with back-to-back wins but have since won just one of five, a 38-point win over Essendon. Three of those four losses have come by margins of 13 or less. The Demons rank seventh in attack and ninth in defence but sit 10th on the AFL ladder.
Stats That Matter
– Adelaide have won 13 of their last 17 against the Demons.
– Melbourne have covered 3 of the 5 games since 2012.
– The under has hit in three of the last four clashes.
– The Demons have covered both clashes at the Adelaide Oval, winning one.
– Adelaide have covered 26 of 40 at the Adelaide Oval including the last five.
– The Crows are 10-6 ATS with a 10-6 over record at the Adelaide Oval when favoured by more than five goals.
– Adelaide have covered 12 of 17 at the Adelaide Oval off a loss.
– The Demons have covered only 12 of their last 30 interstate games but have covered their last three.
– The under has hit in 11 of the 17 Melbourne games since 2012 when they were interstate outsiders of 30.5 or bigger.
– The under has hit in 14 of the last 21 Melbourne night games.
– Melbourne is 32-21 under since 2012 getting 30.5 or more.
– The over is 29-14 when Adelaide are off a score of 90 or fewer.
– The under is 11-6 in when a favourite of more than five goals conceded 130-plus the start prior.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Adelaide 6-1, Melbourne 2-5
2017 Over-Under: Adelaide 5-2, Melbourne 3-4
What To Expect
Adelaide should bounce back here and are fairly reliable as a big home favourite. The big play here though is the under. The under hits when a big favourite conceded 130-plus the start prior while Melbourne have big under angles getting a big start, at night and the recent history between these two sides.
How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 39
Recommended Bet
Under 205.5 ($1.87)
Player Markets
Rory Sloane has been a fantasy stud this year with five performances of 132-plus in his seven games. Sloane is a high-low type but in a game where Adelaide should win easily he should rack up some impressive numbers.
Recommended Bet
Rory Sloane 120+ Fantasy Points ($1.90) 

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