Sunderland v Swansea: Visitors won't take risks

Sunderland v Swansea
Saturday 13 May, 15:00

Sunderland

Sunderland responded to their inevitable relegation by doing something very unexpected - going out and winning the very next game. That came via a 2-0 win at Hull and was a real coupon buster.

It was their first victory since the almost bizarre 4-0 triumph at Crystal Palace in early February when all four goals came in the opening 45 minutes.

That was the last time Jermain Defoe scored for the Black Cats and their win at Hull last weekend was just the second occasion this season they'd banked all three points in a Premier League game without the England striker getting on the scoresheet.

You have to go back to December 17th to find the last time Sunderland won at home and if they are to grab any more points this season, surely this is the game given that their final two fixtures are away trips to Arsenal and Chelsea.

Hull had everything to play for last week and Sunderland had none so perhaps this one will go against all obvious logic too.

Swansea

The Swans took a giant leap towards survival last weekend as they cashed in on Hull's surprise home loss to Sunderland by beating Everton 1-0 the following day.

That saw them flip-flop with the Tigers and a Swansea win here along with a Hull defeat at Crystal Palace would ensure their survival.

Having said that, Paul Clement's men have actually lost more away games (13) than Burnley and the perception is that the Clarets are the worst travellers in the division.

Prior to the win over Everton, Swansea had drawn 1-1 at Man Utd and beaten Stoke 2-0 at the Liberty Stadium so, on very latest form, this is the hottest they've been. Check the records and their best points tally from any other three-game stretch has been six.

It seems the Swans have timed their run to perfection although a late twist is by far from out of the equation.

Match Odds

Despite winning just three of 18 away games this season, Swansea are an odds-on price, 1.98, to bank another. Even for those convinced that incentive trumps past stats, that's a very short price to take.

Sunderland are 4.20 to win at home for just the fourth time this season while the draw is 3.85.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Sunderland are a very 'unders' sort of team and going south of 2.5 goals would have been a successful play in 12 of their last 17 fixtures.

Under 2.5 would also have landed in seven of Swansea's last eight matches, a sign that Clement has really sorted them out at the back since the shambolic days of Bob Bradley.

Swansea won the first meeting this season 3-0 but three of the previous four match-ups had also produced under three goals.

Clement will surely try and keep it tight whilst trying to nick something at the other end and Sunderland just don't score many so Under 2.5 goals, the outsider of the two options at 2.04, looks easily the best bet of the afternoon.

To Score

While Defoe's goal drought has stretched over the last few months, Swansea's Fernando Llorente has been knocking them in at a pretty decent rate.

His headed winner against Everton made it seven goals in 13 for the Spaniard.

It's worth noting, though, that 10 of his Swansea goals this season have come at home so the 2.20 for another on Saturday lacks the appeal it might have.

Defoe is 2.58 to return to scoring ways.

Ref watch

West Midlands ref Andre Marriner heads north for this one.

He's shown seven reds this season but only two in the Premier League, the most recent on his last trip to the Stadium of Light when he sent off West Ham's Sam Byram in the 90th minute.

Marriner flashed just a single yellow in last week's Arsenal v Man Utd clash while he's also booked just one Swansea player the last two times he's been the mad in the middle for the Welsh side.

Opta stat

Since Paul Clement's first Premier League game on January 3, Swansea are the only side not to concede a goal from a set-piece situation (excl. pens) in that period.

Recommended Bet

2pts Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.04