Thursday 11 May, 20:05
Live on BT Sport 2
Manchester United
Despite the modern obsession with Champions League qualification, football is still about winning trophies, and Manchester United still have the knack. They won the FA Cup last season, they have secured the EFL Cup this term, and now they are just two good results away from lifting the Europa League. Yes, winning the tournament brings Champions League football back to Old Trafford, but Jose Mourinho also knows that putting two cups in the cabinet gives his first campaign added legitimacy.
I advised backing United to win the tournament at 4.60 in February, and they are now trading at 1.68 to win the Stockholm showpiece. Before they get to Sweden, they have one more hurdle to traverse.
Mourinho's men were very good in Galicia last week, especially at the back, and should have won the game more comfortably. As it was, Marcus Rashford's excellent free-kick gave them a 1-0 win. They have since lost 2-0 at Arsenal in the Premier League to lose their long unbeaten run, but Mourinho rested a host of key players to keep them fresh for this game.
Rashford, Paul Pogba, Daley Blind, and Antonio Valencia are all likely to return to the starting XI. There may also be a place in midfield for Marouane Fellaini.
United have every reason to think they can defend their one-goal advantage. They haven't lost at Old Trafford since September's derby defeat to Manchester City, and they haven't lost by more than a goal at home for more than three years.
Celta Vigo
Celta are still flying the flag for Spain, but they failed their big test last Thursday. As I suggested might be the case,their total lack of momentum adversely affected their play. It's very hard to lose three games on the spin and then suddenly expect to turn it on in a big match.
Celta shouldn't be dismissed here. They were 1-0 down from the home leg of their tie against Shakhtar Donetsk and still managed to go through, and they also won in Krasnodar. They dumped Real Madrid out of this season's Copa del Rey, so they certainly won't travel to Old Trafford gripped by trepidation.
In terms of personnel, it's hard to see too many alterations to the team from the first leg. A clutch of players were rested for the weekend's 3-0 defeat at Malaga, Celta's fifth straight defeat in all competitions.
Match Odds
United are the 1.57 favourites here, but given the fact they have drawn four of their last seven games at Old Trafford, that price seems a bit short to me.
Celta are unbeaten away from home in the knockout phase, and if United continue to miss chances in the same way as they did in northern Spain, then this could be close.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Unders is trading at evens, and I'm happy to snap that price up. Celta have scored just one goal in their last five games, and United just haven't been ruthless in front of goal in recent weeks.
United's last eight matches in all competitions have all seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land, and that's true of their last seven outings at Old Trafford.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.00
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