Serie A Betting: Back Lazio to march all over Fiorentina

Fiorentina v Lazio
Saturday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Lazio's extraordinary run of form shows no sign of fading, and with Simone Inzaghi's team having now won three games in a row, scoring 16 goals in the process, they have to be favoured to beat a Fiorentina team who are cruising to the end of the season.

La Viola have won just one of their last five matches, and while they've lost only once at the Artemio Franchi this season (weirdly, against Empoli), their performance against Sassuolo last week would suggest that Lazio will be too good. The Aquile's recent record here is outstanding too, winning on five of their last six visits, including three on the trot.

On the plus side for Viola fans is the fact that their team found the wherewithal to equalise late on, but the negative is the way that they threw away a lead and were generally outplayed by Sassuolo. Lazio's goal-scoring form against La Viola has matched their recent run too, they've scored 14 times against them since 2014-15.

Lazio could destroy them, as could Napoli next week, and Keita Balde Diao and Ciro Immobile should enjoy themselves. It's hard to forget Fiorentina's 5-4 win against Inter here a few weeks ago, and wonder if something similar might happen this weekend, but I'll resist a play on the Over 8.5 Goals and content myself with backing Lazio at odds against.

The only concern might be squad rotation, as the Biancocelesti have mathematically secured their spot in the Europa League and must prepare for Wednesday's Coppa Italia Final against Juventus. Gonzalo Rodriguez sits out a ban for the hosts, but Davide Astori returns from suspension.

Recommended Bet:

Back Lazio to beat Fiorentina @ 3.35

Crotone v Udinese
Sunday, 14:00

Huge respect to Crotone and Davide Nicola, who have put together a sparkling run of form late in this Serie A season, but have seen Empoli start to get results at the same time. Had Empoli even drawn at Fiorentina and Milan then the two clubs would be level on points, but as it stands, Crotone are four points adrift, with final games against Juventus and Lazio ahead of them.

That means that they absolutely MUST beat Udinese in their penultimate home game and hope that they can conjure something freakish in Turin or back here against Inzaghi's team. It's a shame that this form has arrived so late, and remarkable that they've won as many points in the last six matches as they had all season.

Udinese have lost their last two away games, against Napoli and Bologna, and are the epitome of a mid-table team with little to concern them. Good enough to stay up, but nothing to terrify a team in urgent need of a win.

I expect Nicola's team to throw everything into this, and while it isn't always true that the team which HAS to win beats the one with nothing to play for, Crotone's motivation, and their recent run of four wins in th

eir last six, makes them a worthy favourite here.

Emil Hallfredsson (Udinese) and Leonardo Capezzi (Crotone) are suspended, but the hosts have top scorer Diego Falcinelli back from his ban and well-rested.

Recommended Bet: 

Back Crotone to beat Udinese @ 1.72

Atalanta v Milan
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Extra 1

Milan are another team whose form has deserted them completely, and with the Rossoneri winning just one of their last six, Atalanta should be too good for them.

Atalanta have drawn four of their last six, a source of great frustration at the business end of things, but a strong finish to the season in the three winnable games that remain would confirm them in fifth place, and give them the credit that their campaign deserves.

They've lost only one of their last six against Milan, an encouraging statistic given the extent to which they've improved this season, and they've also won six of their last nine here. For all those frustrating draws, they still get over the line more often than not.

They were magnificent here against Juventus two weeks ago, with Papu Gomez continuing his fine run of form, and anything approaching that performance would be far too good for a Milan side whose future remains uncertain, and whose line-up contains too many players looking towards the summer.

Franck Kessie, Hans Hateboer and Ervin Zukanovic are expected to miss out through injury, while Milan have Gabriel Paletta and Lucas Ocampos suspended. At this point, fitness tests for Davide Calabria and Alessio Romagnoli are essential for a weakened Rossoneri defence.

Recommended Bet: 

Back Atalanta to beat Milan @ 2.20