US Open Women's Quarter-Final Tips: Krejcikova can shock tournament favourite Sabalenka

The first two US Open women's singles quarter-finals are on Tuesday's schedule so get Dan Weston's view and his best bet...

Raducanu continues incredible US Open

There were wins for Karolina Pliskova, Maria Sakkari and unfortunately for us, Belinda Bencic, who deserved her victory over Iga Swiatek. Incredibly, Emma Raducanu also recorded yet another win and the British player is now into her first Grand Slam quarter-final, following her triumph over Shelby Rogers, dropping just three games in the process.

Raducanu is now into single-digit pricing on the Exchange, at 8.8, with Aryna Sabalenka leading a very competitive outright market at 4.3.

All players are priced below 20.0, implying that all eight players remaining in the draw have more than a 5% chance of lifting the trophy in four days.

Svitolina a justified favourite over Fernandez

Elina Svitolina 1.42 v Leylah Fernandez 3.35: Svitolina is the market favourite for this, against Fernandez, the conqueror of both Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber. The Canadian needed three sets to get past both of those big names as a heavy pre-match underdog, while Svitolina has breezed into this round with four straight-set victories.

The market price looks about right to me. On hard court this year, Svitolina has won a marginally higher service points won percentage, and around 4% more return points, so the bigger name is very justified as a solid favourite in advance of this match. But it promises to be a fascinating encounter with Fernandez certainly not shy of giant-killing.

Krejcikova looking like value over Sabalenka

Barbora Krejcikova 2.56 v Aryna Sabalenka 1.63: This is where I have a difference of opinion to the market. Sabalenka is the current outright favourite for the title, and by definition from that, would obviously be the market favourite for this match as well, which of course she is.

However, I'm not sold on the market pricing at all. Based on hard court numbers this year, Krejcikova has a higher match win percentage, a higher games won percentage, and a higher points won percentage. She also has a slight edge on service points won percentage, with almost identical return points won percentages between the two players.

The Czech player has barely lost a match since before the French Open, only losing to world number one Ash Barty (twice) and Belinda Bencic at the Olympics, and I make Krejcikova favourite here. She's today's recommendation at what looks a generous underdog price.


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