US Open Men's Quarter-Final Tips: Markets accurate for first two matches
Tuesday's US Open action sees the men's singles move to the quarter-final stage, and after a Monday winner, Dan Weston previews both match-ups...
Harris defeats Opelka to give us a Monday winner
We picked up a day eight winner on Monday with pre-match underdog Lloyd Harris ending the tournament of Reilly Opelka while the three heavy pre-match favourites got the job done in either straight sets or four sets.
Novak Djokovic, the tournament favourite, dropped the opening set 6-1 to Jenson Brooksby, but the world number one did what the world number one does, reeling off the next three sets without too much fuss to record a four-set victory.
Today's action features the four winners from Sunday in two quarter-finals and I'll run through both with my thoughts on the form and betting.
Medvedev a huge favourite to end Van De Zandschulp's journey
Botic van de Zandschulp 25.00 v Daniil Medvedev 1.04: In theory, this is a mismatch. Medvedev is a huge favourite to beat the Dutch qualifier who has done superbly to get to this stage.
Van de Zandschulp has already beaten Casper Ruud and on Sunday, in five sets, Diego Schwartzman, as a heavy underdog in both matches. The Dutchman has now played 18 sets in four matches, plus another nine in qualifying.
Compare this to Medvedev's 12 sets from four matches and the world number two clearly has a large edge in time spent on court which, coupled with a huge ability differential, sees him justified to be a short price today.
Competitive-looking clash for the second quarter-final today
Felix Auger-Aliassime 1.55 v Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2.78: On paper this looks more competitive, with Auger-Aliassime the favourite but with much closer market pricing than the first quarter-final.
I've been so impressed with Alcaraz Garfia and he is certainly a young player with huge potential, but he's also coming into this match on the back of two five-setters in a row, which isn't at all beneficial in Grand Slam tournaments. The Canadian, Auger-Aliassime, also needed five to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut, but that was his solitary match which went to a deciding set.
My model has Auger-Aliassime priced at 1.62, which is mainly due to him winning over 4% more service points, with a slight deficiency on return points won percentage, on hard courts this year, so it's tough to suggest that the market is offering much value on Alcaraz Garfia. If he was priced at around 3.30, I might be tempted, but we are a bit far from this at the time of writing.
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