AFL Preview: Blues v Demons

Carlton v Melbourne
Sunday 3:20pm at MCG

Carlton and Melbourne are at opposite end of the ladder but this shapes as a fascinating affair nonetheless.

Form
Carlton are 16th on the ladder and have hardly been able to get their season going with just five wins. The have won just two of their last seven but incredibly downed Greater Western Sydney in one of those victories. They have lost their last two, respectable losses to Richmond and Adelaide. Carlton have the worst attack in the AFL but rank 10th defensively.

Melbourne are sixth on the ladder with an 8-6 record. They had won four on end before being hammered by Sydney last week. The Demons have bounced back from their last two losses with a strong win. The Demons have been held to under 100 points in eight of their last 10. Melbourne rank second in attack and ninth in defence.

Stats That Matter

– Carlton have won 9 of the last 11 games against Melbourne.
– Carlton have covered three straight against the Demons.
– All six games since 2012 have gone under the total.
– Carlton are 29-21 ATS at the MCG since 2012 and have covered 5 of their last 6 at the ground.
– Melbourne have failed to cover their last eight at the MCG.
– Melbourne are 43-28 under at the MCG since 2012.
– The Demons are 6-14 ATS as a favourite at the MCG since 2012 with a 13-7 under record in those games.
– Carlton are 23-15 ATS as an outsider at the MCG.
– Carlton are 19-8 ATS in day games at the MCG.
– Melbourne are 31-17 under after scoring 65 points or fewer.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Carlton 9-5, Melbourne 6-8
2017 Over-Under: Carlton 5-9, Melbourne 7-7

What To Expect
Carlton are the bet of the week for The Wolf in the AFL. All the numbers line up for them. They are great at the MCG but even better as an outsider and a near unbeatable bet in day games. Melbourne are no good at the MCG, particularly as a favourite. The upset is on.

How It’s Shaping Up
Carlton by 9

Recommended Bet
Carlton +7.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Sam Docherty has had 30 touches in four of his last five with the other game racking up 28. Will be seeing a ton of it.

Recommended Bet
Sam Docherty 30+ Disposals ($1.95)