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Penrith Panthers v Manly Sea Eagles
Saturday, July 8, 5:30pm (AEST) at Pepper Stadium
This clash can’t come quick enough for the Panthers after they were hammered 42-14 by the Rabbitohs last week. Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles made it five wins on the trot after they overcame a 16-point deficit to run down the Warriors 26-22 in Perth last week. The Sea Eagles will be missing one of their forward leaders in Jake Trbojevic, who is on Origin duty, while Panthers utility Tyrone Peachey makes a return to the starting side, replacing the injured Dean Whare in the centres.
History
The Panthers have won four straight and six of their last seven against the Sea Eagles. The Panthers won last year’s Round 26 clash at Penrith by 30 points with winger Josh Mansour crossing for a double.
Form
Penrith were humiliated in their last outing against South Sydney, losing 42-14 in a putrid defensive display. The Panthers have dropped their last two and have conceded at least 18 points in nine of their last 11 games. Penrith are 0-7 in games against Top 8 teams. Manly have won five straight and have scored 30-plus in three of their last seven. The Sea Eagles have astonishingly ascended to third on the ladder. Manly are a perfect 6-0 in road games this season.
Key Matchup
Matt Moylan v Daly Cherry-Evans. Moylan had one of his worst games of the season since his move to the No.6 jersey. He made three errors in the big loss to the Rabbitohs and threw a loose pass which led to one of Alex Johnston’s five tries. The Wolf is expecting a stronger performance from Moylan at the foot of the Mountains on Saturday night. Beware of a wounded DCE! The Manly skipper has been playing sensational football and is extremely unlucky to miss out on Queensland Origin selection. He’ll have a point to prove and the Panthers can’t afford to give him the same freedom that they gave Rabbitohs halfback Adam Reynolds last week.
Stats That Matter
– Penrith are 5-10 ATS with an 8-7 under record while Manly are 9-6 ATS with an 8-7 over number.
– The Panthers have won four straight and six of their last seven against the Sea Eagles.
– Penrith have won the last three matches at home by double digits.
– Penrith have scored at least 22 points in six of their last seven.
– The Panthers are 11-14 ATS as a home favourite since 2014 including a 2-8 ATS record when favoured by less than a try.
– Home favourites of less than a try are 45-74 ATS since 2014 while those that concede 36 or more the start prior are 1-9 ATS.
– The Panthers are 9-4 ATS after conceding 30 points.
– The Sea Eagles have covered 10 of their last 14 away from Brookvale.
– The Sea Eagles are 19-12 ATS overall since 2014 as an underdog away from Brookvale.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf is expecting a big bounce-back performance by the Panthers and the unavailability of Jake Trbojevic leaves a big hole in the Sea Eagles pack. The move of Peachey to the starting side looks a good one and it’s impossible to ignore the Panthers dominant record over the Sea Eagles in recent times. The home side in a tight one.
How It’s Shaping Up
Penrith by 1
Best Bet
Penrith ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 41.5 ($.1.90)
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