Yesterday's recommendation in the ladies singles was a winner, with Garbine Muguruza comfortably covering the -4.5 game handicap in a 6-2 6-4 win over Ekaterina Alexandrova, in a match where it was easy to feel that she was relatively in control throughout. It will be interesting to see how the Spaniard is priced in subsequent rounds, as there may well be potential to do a rare 'full-reverse' on her prospects.
Sevastova the value on a tough day
Today's action on the ladies side is a little tough to find value, and my model indicated value on just one player - Anastasia Sevastova - who takes on the home favourite, the Brit, Heather Watson. That game, like many on today's Wimbledon schedule, can be watched on Betfair Live Video.
It's not a surprise that Watson is over-rated by the market here - she has recent form (reaching the semi-finals of Eastbourne) and home advantage, two over-rated factors which are adored by the market - and the two-year grass numbers are much in favour of the Latvian, who took the title in the warm-up event in Mallorca, where she beat some very competent grass-courters in Ana Konjuh, Caroline Garcia and Julia Goerges.
Grass stats significantly in Sevastova's favour
A relatively facile win over Yulia Putintseva in the first round here makes it six wins in a row for Sevastova, and with her having advantages on serve (holding 70.5% compared to Watson's 68.0% on grass in the last two years) and return (breaking 37.0% to 28.8%) it starts to become clear why my model favoured her, pricing her at 1.53.
Currently, Sevastova is available at a very generous 1.71 on the Exchange, and this is my recommendation for today's play.
Numerous interesting match-ups on day three
Away from this, there are a number of matches which, despite not offering much in the way of betting value, are very interesting prospects for the neutral, and these include the big-hitting duo of Camila Giorgi and Madison Keys - the American is 1.64 to advance - while Johanna Konta's clash with Donna Vekic is a repeat of the Nottingham final, which Vekic surprisingly won. The Brit, Konta, is 1.31 to get revenge here, and this price is bigger than the 1.18 that she was in the Midlands several weeks ago.
Also in action is Petra Kvitova, who is expected to routine the limited Madison Brengle, as well as Victoria Azarenka, who takes her questionable fitness as well as a 7-0 head-to-head lead into her clash with Elena Vesnina. Azarenka is 1.54 to make the third round, where she will face the winner of Watson and Sevastova. Simona Halep also takes to the court, as she faces our hero from Monday, Beatriz Haddad Maia. The Romanian looks a few ticks short at 1.15 but is likely to get the job done.
Recommended Bets
Back Anastasia Sevastova at 1.71
0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook
Post a Comment