With our post-draw preview highlighting where the outright value lies, we can move on to the individual matches, and as I've made the point numerous times previously, it is vital that bettors and traders do not over expose themselves in the first couple of days of a Grand Slam - it is a marathon, not a sprint - and the first round of a Slam, where player condition is frequently questionable, is an absolute betting minefield.
Indeed, it's probably fair to suggest that players at Wimbledon this year have more fitness doubts than any other Grand Slam that I can remember, and with both the men's and women's events also being wide-open, we may well see more 'surprise' results than recent Slams.
Having said this, the best of five set format in the men's singles offers a considerable advantage to the 'better' player, and it is important to take this into account.
Wawrinka vulnerable against talented Medvedev
One player who I'd certainly be more bullish over, if this was a best of three, is Daniil Medvedev, who takes on Stan Wawrinka today, with the Swiss player available at a current 1.37. My model made Wawrinka bigger - he is mediocre on grass, and faces a player of immense potential.
Medvedev's potential was rubber-stamped by his run to the semi-finals in Eastbourne last week, where he gave Novak Djokovic a solid match, but doubts persist regarding his longevity in the longer format, and it is far from inconceivable that he takes a lead before wilting.
Cilic over-rated against competent Kohlschreiber
Marin Cilic is among several favourites that my model made poor value, at 1.19 against the competent grass-courter, Philipp Kohlschreiber. Cilic is something of a market favourite in recent weeks with some solid showings in the warm-up events, but he has a huge issue stepping up against top players on grass. Kohlschreiber doesn't fit this bill, although his surface stats aren't bad at all, and this 'flat-track bully' dynamic of Cilic deters me from taking him on this afternoon.
Whittington unlikely to dominate Monteiro
Andrew Whittington also falls into this bracket, at 1.27 against the Brazilian clay-courter, Thiago Monteiro, and certainly, Monteiro has had no desire to prepare for the event, continuing to play clay Challengers.
However, with something of a serve-orientated dynamic, Monteiro should have more tools than the average clay-courter on grass, and it's worth noting that despite Whittington winning six of ten matches on grass this season, including qualifying here, he won just one set by a better margin than two games. Therefore, taking Monteiro +5.5 games can definitely be considered.
Karlovic and Bemelmans among those with value
Other players who were indicated as value by my model include one of our outright selections, Ivo Karlovic, at 1.49 against the Slovenian-Brit, Aljaz Bedene, who has injury doubts as well, while Ruben Bemelmans looks a bit big at 3.10 against Tommy Haas, whose level this year is very poor at 82.3% holds and 12.3% breaks (combined 94.6%). Furthermore, Haas' 39 year old body may not benefit from the longer format, and this looks like an upset waiting to happen.
Janowicz price nice against over-rated Shapovalov
My model also likes Jerzy Janowicz, at 1.96, against the young Canadian, Denis Shapovalov. Both players have considerable upside on the surface - Shapovalov won the junior event here last year while Janowicz reached the semi-finals here in 2013, before his injury issues - but I like Janowicz here given Shapovalov's current mediocre level.
Despite many observers considering Shapovalov to be a player of high potential, his return game looks very limited, and he's broken opponents just 8.1% in main tour matches in the last 12 months, and he's struggling to up this much above 15% in Challenger Tour matches as well.
Considering that this is the first round, my recommendations comprise both Monteiro on the game handicap, and Janowicz, but I also recommend half-stake options on both.
Recommended Bets
Back Thiago Monteiro +5.5 games at 2.06
Back Jerzy Janowicz at 1.96
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