Burnley v Leeds United: Bielsa's boys to win again

Burnley v Leeds United: Bielsa's boys to win again

Both Burnley and Leeds United have achieved their primary objective for the season, and Kevin Hatchard believes the visitors can take another step towards a top-half finish.

Mission accomplished for Dyche's Clarets

When you've collected just two points from your first seven league matches, it's tough to hold your nerve as a club and as a manager, but at no stage did Burnley or Sean Dyche look likely to do anything drastic. Dyche has defied the odds time and time again at Turf Moor, not only by reaching the Premier League but also by staying in it, as well as delivering a first European qualification for decades. To have secured Premier League status with time to spare is an achievement for the manager, his players and everyone associated with the Clarets.

Dyche is now looking to the future, having had what he has described as encouraging conversations with new chairman Alan Pace. The manager wants more flexibility in the transfer market, as he looks to plot the next act of escapology.

It has at times been a difficult season. The Clarets haven't won at home since late January, and Dyche's men are currently 15 points behind last season's overall total. They are averaging under a goal a game in the Premier League, and they are on track to concede more goals than last term.

It has been away wins that have hauled Burnley over the finish line. They have recorded victories at Everton, Wolves and Fulham since the start of March, and six of their ten top-flight wins have been away from Turf Moor.

Robbie Brady and Kevin Long are the only players still sidelined by injury. It remains to be seen whether Dyche will mix things up in the closing matches of the campaign.

Top-half finish within Whites' reach

It was striking how few people believed Leeds United would be in the relegation battle before the season started, and so it has proved. Marcelo Bielsa hasn't had to compromise his footballing principles, the Yorkshire giants find themselves in the top ten, and a place in the top eight isn't mathematically impossible.

If anyone thought the Whites lacked motivation, they will have been disabused of that notion by the recent 3-1 win over a Tottenham side that was chasing Champions League qualification. Since the start of March, Leeds have held Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United to draws and have beaten Spurs. Admittedly, all of those results were at Elland Road, but it's still an impressive body of work.

On the road, it tends to be famine or feast for Bielsa's men. They haven't drawn a single away game in the PL this term, winning eight and losing nine.

Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips made their returns from injury against Spurs, and could both start here. Helder Costa is definitely out.

Leeds are rightful favourites

Burnley haven't won a Premier League home match since late January, and they haven't scored multiple goals in a game at Turf Moor since then either. Leeds won the reverse fixture 1-0, and they have won two of their last three on the road. I'll happily back the visitors to take the win at 2.32.

Markets expect goals

Interestingly, Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.71, with Both Teams To Score priced at 1.64. Six of Burnley's last seven PL games have featured three goals or more, but if you look at their home matches, only two of the last eight have climbed above the 2.5 goals line.

Six of Leeds' last ten PL outings have stayed under 2.5 goals too, so there's an argument for Under 2.5 Goals at 2.32.

Bamford to strike again

Patrick Bamford ended a mini-goal drought against Spurs, and has now scored 15 Premier League goals, which is an outstanding achievement. He is priced at 6/5 to score here, and I think that's a decent price for a player who is central to the Leeds attack. He scored the winner in the reverse fixture, and it's worth noting that nine of his 15 top-flight strikes have come in away games.

On the Burnley side of things, Chris Wood has scored in six of his last eight games, and has netted five goals in the last three. He is 13/10 to find the net at any time.