Serie A Betting: Efficient Juve will swiftly return to winning ways

Sampdoria v Frosinone
Sunday, 14:00

There are two massive games to get stuck into this week, and more on those in a moment, but first what might prove to be the bet of the weekend. I've talked before in this column about the recent disparity between Frosinone's form at home and away.

At home they're measured and seem to play with the confidence of a team that feels that they can control and win games. Away from home, Roberto Stellone's side seem to become haphazard and wayward and simply try to outscore the opposition.

And the statistics back this up: their last four home games have all gone Under 2.5 goals, with two of those finishing 0-0, while away from home things are completely different. In seven away games since the start of November, the fewest number of goals that a Frosinone match has featured has been three. Over 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5 have all come into play.

Given that eight of Samp's last nine Serie A games have gone Over 2.5, and three of those Over 4.5, the potential for goals here is huge. It's just a question of how we play it.

I'm inclined to take a small risk and swerve the 1.80 that's around for Over 2.5 goals and go for the higher numbers, as this is the kind of game that could catch fire and pay us out. Over 3.5 goals is trading at 2.90, Over 4.5 at 5.50 and Over 5.5 at 11.00. I'll have a bet on all three, as these two relegation threatened clubs go hammer and tongs.

Recommended Bets
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Sampdoria v Frosinone @ 2.90
Back Over 4.5 Goals in Sampdoria v Frosinone @ 5.50
Back Over 5.5 Goals in Sampdoria v Frosinone @ 11.00

Juventus v Inter
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

Juventus will still be kicking themselves after the 0-0 draw against Bologna last week put an end to their astonishing 15-game winning League run. They showed fighting spirit in their 2-2 Champions League draw against Bayern Munich though, and even though they'll probably exit Europe's biggest tournament, they've proved that they're a level above everyone in Italy, barring Napoli.

That includes Roberto Mancini's Inter, and even though they beat Sampdoria 3-1 last week (much to the chagrin of this column), their results in 2016 have still been poor. They've won only three times in the League, and with Juve likely to defend stoutly and look to break Inter down, I can only see a home win in this one.

I'm tempted to put Juve up at 1.61 for the victory, as I happen to think that's a competitive price, but the better bet might be to take advantage of the fact that the Champions are unlikely to concede.
They've let in precisely one League goal this calendar year (Antonio Cassano got it, in case you're wondering) and they've won three of their last four home games by a 1-0 scoreline.

There are several ways to play this, but on balance, the 1-0 Correct Score makes most appeal at 5.80.

Marcelo Brozovic is suspended, but Geoffrey Kondogbia won an appeal to have his ban reduced and is likely to start. Claudio Marchisio is on the treatment table, but Giorgio Chiellini and Alex Sandro could return. Hernanes was impressive against Bayern midweek and has a point to prove against his old club.

Recommended Bet
Back 1-0 Juventus 1-0 in Correct Score market @ 5.80

Fiorentina v Napoli
Monday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Europe

Fiorentina against Napoli is a Monday night matchup that looks like it will produce goals. Three of La Viola's last four Serie A games have gone Over 2.5, and while Napoli's last six in all competitions have all been low scoring, everything points to this being open.

Napoli are wonderfully well organised, and more than happy to sit and bide their time against cagey opposition. That's what tends to lead to their low-scoring wins against the likes of Carpi and Lazio. When they're attacked, as they will be here, Maurizio Sarri's team is devastating on the counter, and the approach of Paolo Sousa's side will mean plenty of chances.

And there's so much quality on the field that it's hard not to see them being converted. You might worry about both teams' Europa League exits last Thursday and a potential drop in tempo, but this Monday night kick-off gives them both time to recuperate and I think they'll serve up a game to remember, and one that will hopefully keep Napoli's season alive.

Over 2.5 Goals shouldn't be trading at odds-against at 2.14, and so that's the logical selection.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Napoli @ 2.14