AFL Preview Round 17: Suns v Bombers

Gold Coast v Essendon
Sat 7:25pm at Metricon Stadium

It’s another absolute stinker of a game when the Suns host the Bombers at Metricon on Saturday night. Free tip punters: place your bets and immediately switch over to Channel 504, where you can enjoy a Prelim Final re-match between the Giants and Tigers!

Form

Gold Coast (LLLLL) – There’s not much to say about the Suns’ form line- it just never seems to get any better. Injuries continue to be a problem, but at the end of the day this side is struggling to run out games and until that gets better it doesn’t matter how much skill they have.

Essendon (LWWWL) – The Dons probably said goodbye to their very slim finals chances after losing to the Pies last Sunday, a loss that was compounded by losing Stringer and Ambrose to injury. They definitely put up a fight, but in the end it was the class and balance of the Pies midfield that got them the victory- and the fact the Bombers forward line lacked targets. 

Stats That Matter– Essendon have won 6 of their 8 meetings
– Both sides are 2-8 on the Over/Under in their past 10 matches
– The Suns have covered the spread for 4 weeks in a row
– Brendon Goddard averages 29 disposals and 114 Fantasy Points per game against the Suns
– Gold Coast have scored between 0-60 for 3 straight games
– Zach Merrett has had 30+ Disposals for 3 consecutive matches
– The Suns have won just two 4th quarters this season (-221 points)

Betting Data

2018 Line: Gold Coast- 8-6; Essendon- 4-1

2018 Over-Under: Gold Coast- 6-8; Essendon- 6-8

What To Expect

This is not a game the Wolf is keen to get involved in from a punting perspective, with a big line and two very inconsistent teams. While the 0-60 points market for the Suns has been a big fill-up for Wolf followers over the past 3 weeks, and while Wolfie is tipping it again, there isn’t the same amount of confidence given the Dons are prone to leaking a few points. Something Wolfie is very keen on, however, is for the Essendon backline to rack up a few disposals at good value. The Suns forward line is non-existent at the moment, and defenders have been doing well in the Player Prop markets against the Gold Coast. Other than that, bet responsibly in this game punters!

How It’s Shaping UpEssendon by 26

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Gold Coast 0-60 Points ($2.05)
Value Bet: Zach Merrett 120+ Fantasy Points ($3.85)
Player Prop: Michael Hurley 25+ Disposals $2.05
First Goalscorer: James Stewart