Manchester City v Brighton: Seagulls may limit the extent of their defeat

Man City v Brighton
Saturday 29 September, 15:00

Settled league side

City have bounced back from their 2-1 home defeat by Lyon in the Champions League with crushing wins over much lesser opposition (5-0 at Cardiff and 3-0 at Oxford in the midweek EFL Cup tie).

Their next Champions League match is away to Hoffenheim on Tuesday and Pep Guardiolamay well revert to the side that won 3-0 at home to Fulham before the Lyon tie, which would mean David Silva replacing Ilkay Gundogan as the only change from the starting line-up at Cardiff.

Gross could return

Having snatched a point with comebacks against both Fulham and Southampton, Brighton lost 2-1 at home to Tottenham last weekend and now sit 13th with five points. The only win for Chris Hughton's side this season was against Manchester United in their first home game.

Pascal Gross has missed the last two matches against Southampton and Spurs but may be ready to return from an ankle injury, while striker Florin Andone could be set for his debut after being named on the bench for the first time last weekend.

Best at home v worst away

This is the best home team in the Premier League last season against the worst away side, with little having changed this season. City have won three out of three at home with 11 goals for and two against, while Brighton have lost two and drawn one of their three away games.

More specifically, Brighton have lost all seven away games against the big six since joining the Premier League and their only goal in those matches came in last season's 3-1 defeat against City.

They also lost 2-0 away to Manchester United in last season's FA Cup, which makes it seven out of eight without scoring away to the big six, and City won to nil (2-0) when they visited the Amex at the start of the season.

That all points to a City win to nil at 1.67.

Brighton's only heavy defeat away to a big-six team was 4-0 at Liverpool on the final day of last season and the usual margin of defeat is two goals (five times out of eight, including the FA Cup match).

That suggests they might limit City to a respectable scoreline, although the fact that Guardiola's team scored three at home to Brighton last season indicates they have the capability to open a wider gap this time.

Two of City's three wins at home this season against teams outside the big six have been by at least three goals, although their strike-rate in that category last season was only 50%, so it is far from assured that trend will continue, especially against Hughton's well-organised team.

The win to nil looks solid, but based on Brighton's stats it could be worth looking for something bigger and splitting stakes on correct scores of 2-0 at 7.60 and 3-0 [at 7] for a City win.

Conflicting goals figures

City led the Premier League for home games with over 2.5 goals last season, with 16 out of 19 (84%), and they had 63% over 3.5 goals too. This season all three home league games have gone over 2.5 goals, with one over 3.5.

Despite their poor points total on the road, Brighton are good at limiting their opponentsand last season only five of their 19 away games (26%) went over 2.5 goals - their visit to the Etihad (3-1) being one of them.

It's a difficult one to weigh up, but there will certainly be better chances to back City for overs at short odds.

Opta Stat

Since the start of last season, there have been 20 instances of a team scoring 5+ goals in a Premier League match - Manchester City have been responsible for eight of those (40%). Five or more total goals is available at [2.67]. 

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Man City to win 2-0 at 7.60 and to win 3-0 at 7.00