Everton v Norwich City: Farke's mounting problems all point to success for Toffees

Everton were in winning form before the international break, and whilst they are a short price to beat Norwich this Saturday, Alan Dudman is exploring ways to boost the price of a home victory...

Everton v Norwich City
Saturday, 15:00

Recent upturn in form good news for under pressure Silva

Following several must-win matches and a manager in Marco Silva under pressure, Everton unexpectedly jumped into a bit of form before the international break with wins against West Ham (2-0) and Southampton (1-2). A point against Tottenham too can be considered a good return.
And despite moving up to 13th in the table following the away win at St Mary's, Silva always seems to be a man fighting for his job, although expected considering the summer spend of £120m. The aim of breaking into the 'top six' seems about as realistic as West Ham's at the moment, but at least Everton are improving.
Silva seems to have a knack of finding a result when he needs it, and he should be praised for introducing a bit more pace into the side in his preferred 4-2-3-1.
Alex Iwobi floating behind Richarlison in a No.10 role works, and the under-achieving Theo Walcott has gone through a renaissance period with some dashing runs against Southampton and West Ham. He played well in both of those games.
However, the best decision from Silva has been to introduce Tom Davies to the midfield. Since he started against the Hammers, results have picked up and he gives not only a bit of drive from the centre of the park, but good possession and a knack of scoring. Everton's high-pressing game suits him well.
But, we must not get too carried away, Everton have only won three times at Goodison this term and have scored just eight goals at home.

Problems mounting for Canaries following Watford defeat

The unwanted stats continue to rack up for Norwich. Their last appearance before the international break resulted in yet another defeat at the hands of Watford. A side that aren't exactly famed for attacking play at the moment. .
The 2-0 loss was described as a "disaster" by Canaries boss Daniel Farke, although I preferred his excellent comparison by saying: "You have to have the mentality like selling Hoovers by knocking on many doors."
The fact they created virtually nothing against Watford was a major worry and the problem that Farke now has is that he has to address the leaky nature of his defence, combined with a way to get Teemu Pukki into the game. He is feeding off mere scraps at the moment - and that barnstorming performance against Manchester City seems a distant memory.
Opta now have Norwich winning just twice in their last 21 away Premier League matches. That's just seven points collected from 63 available. They are also winless in their last six visits to Goodison.

Toffees long odds-on, but there are other avenues to explore

Everton are not world-beaters, but are priced-up as such at 1.42 in the Match Odds market, which makes this slightly precarious and there will be plenty that believe odds at just shy of 1/2 make a banker bet. I wouldn't back at that price personally, but in Norwich's current form away from home this season of W0 D1 L5 F1 A12 - it's impossible to even consider putting up the visitors here, even at the inflated odds of 8.60.
With Norwich's ability, or lack of ability to keep a clean sheet (just one so far which is a joint-low in the Premier League), Everton backers should at least be expecting one goal
from the hosts, which looks a simple enough task given that the Canaries have conceded at least twice in 10 of their last 12 matches.
A decent play here could be to back the 2-0 in the Correct Score market with a goal for Everton at 1-0 making a nice trade in-running to lay back your stake or even press up with a higher lay to ensure a profitable green book all-round. The price of the 2-0 at 8.60 certainly gives a bit of scope to do so. We can back that bet up with a Norwich stat again - as they are the only side that have failed to win a single point from a losing position. They won't see an awful lot of the ball either, as they had just 41% possession at Brighton, and it might be less for Saturday's fixture.
Norwich have been beaten by a 2-0 scoreline on five occasions this term in the Premier League; which is something to be positive for trading on that outcome again.
I also like the Half Time bet for Everton to win the first 45 minutes at around 1.91, and with the Toffees scoring in the first half against West Ham and Southampton recently, hopefully we can land that bet nice and early.

Service to Pukki a cause for concern

I backed and tipped the Over 2.5 Goals between Bournemouth and Norwich earlier in the season, as neither had kept a clean sheet prior to that game. Therefore the 0-0 was somewhat surprising, and the Canaries have failed to keep a shutout since.
Which makes for an interesting market with Over 2.5 Goals - which is priced at 1.61. The Over 2.5 is a massive 2.60.
City away from home are 5/6 on the Under 2.5, and the only non-winning bet for followers of that with Norwich this season was the 4-1 defeat to Liverpool. Meanwhile Everton are 4/6 on the Under 2.5, and Goodison is hardly a venue for goals this season with the Blues holding a record of F8 A8.
One lay I was quite keen to explore was going against Teemu Pukki in the To Score market. Since scoring six in his first five matches, the striker has now failed to find the net in his past seven. I rather optimistically was hoping for around 2.60 - which certainly fits a lay price. But at 3.20, he's just out of the remit.

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