Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every game as the top flight returns

The Bundesliga returns this weekend and Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is here to predict the score of every match, using expected goals (xG) data to find the betting value...

Wolfsburg to edge to win

Augsburg vs Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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*graph refers to Betfair Exchange percentage chance

Augsburg occupy 14th in the Bundesliga table, and that is a fair reflection of their performances to date. Defensively they are vulnerable though allowing an average of 1.8 expected goals against (xGA) per game in 19/20. Wolfsburg sit seventh in the table, but they should sit higher according to xG (5th). Believe it or not, Wolfsburg's expected goals process is actually better away from home than at home, averaging 1.7 expected goals for (xGF) per game. The model calculates a 50% chance of an away win, with goals expected (59% O2.5, 60% BTTS) - 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ 10.00

Dortmund to claim comfortable derby spoils

Dortmund vs Schalke
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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Arguably the biggest game of the weekend in Germany, as Dortmund and Schalke do battle in a behind closed doors Revierderby. Dortmund are flattered by being in second place at this stage of the season (4th xG table), but they do boast a very strong underlying process, creating plenty of chances on a regular basis, especially at home (2.3 xGF per home game). While Schalke sit sixth, they rank as a bottom half team on xG, with a poor underlying process that is even worst on the road (1.2 xGF, 1.8 xGA per away game). We give Dortmund a 65% chance of winning here, with goals likely on the cards (58% O2.5, 52% BTTS) - 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ 13.50

High-scoring draw between two strugglers

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Paderborn
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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A huge game at the bottom of the table, as Fortuna Dusseldorf, who occupy the relegation play-off place, take on the team rock bottom of the table but only six points behind them, Paderborn.
Fortuna saw an upturn in results before the season was suspended, losing only one of their last six league games, but they were second best in five of those according to xG. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the league (2.1 xGA per game) along with opponents here Paderborn (1.9 xGA per game), so expect an open game with chances at both ends. Paderborn will cause problems for their hosts here, and we give them a 58% chance of avoiding defeat in a high-scoring contest (59% O2.5, 61% BTTS) - 2-2.

Back the 2-2 @ 14.00

Entertaining home win

Hoffenheim vs Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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Hoffenheim sit ninth in the table, but performances this season have been poor and very inconsistent. At home they have created plenty of chances (1.7 xGF per home game) but have conceded even more (2.0 xGA per game), showing just how crazy and gung-ho this team is. Hertha Berlin are also mid-table, and they too concede good chances regularly (1.6 xGA per game). We think Hoffenheim will get three points here (54%), in what should be a goal-laden game (51% O3.5, 69% BTTS) - 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ 19.50

RB Leipzig to thump Freiburg

RB Leipzig vs Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
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Title chasing RB Leipzig will be looking to keep their foot on the gas as the season resumes, and so far they have ranked as the second best team in the Bundesliga, according to xG. Process-wise, they are rivalling Bayern Munich this season (2.4 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), but prior to the break, it did appear as though they had tightened up defensively, keeping four clean-sheets in their last five league games. Freiburg sit 8th in the table and having already beaten RBL this season, but according to expected goals, they are fortunate to not be in a relegation battle (16th xG table). Away from home they are an extremely vulnerable team, allowing 2.2 xGA per away game, so Leipzig are taken to win (80%), and to do so to nil in a high-scoring success (75% O2.5) - 3-0.

Back the 3-0 @ 9.80

High-scoring draw at the Commerzbank

Frankfurt vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
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Frankfurt had a bad time of things before the break, losing nine of their last 14 league games, but did put in some good performances in the midst of that run, including a 2-0 home success over RB Leipzig. At home this season, their process is impressive (2.1 xGF, 1.4 xGA per home game), so shouldn't be underestimated. Borussia Monchengladbach have been hugely impressive this season, and are rightly in the mix for the title, boasting some solid underlying numbers (2.1 xGF, 1.4 xGA per game). Their Achilles heel this season has been away from home, winning just 50% of the games on the road, and the model thinks they will fail to win again here, giving Frankfurt a 63% chance of avoiding defeat. Goals are on the menu though (66% O2.5, 67% BTTS) - 2-2.

Back the 2-2 @ 14.00

Koln's excellent run to continue

FC Koln vs Mainz
Sunday, 14:30 GMT
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FC Koln were one of the form teams in the Bundesliga before the break, winning eight of their last 11 games to serge clear of the relegation zone and into mid-table. Their underlying numbers were excellent throughout that run also. Mainz are just above the relegation play-off place, but based on performances should be higher in the table. However, away from home their process is terrible, especially defensively, as they allow an average of 2.2 xGA per game on their travels. Koln are taken to win (48%) in an entertaining clash (63% O2.5, 63% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Bayern to be pushed all the way in the capital

Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich
Sunday, 17:30 GMT
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Union Berlin have had a fantastic season so far, sitting comfortably in mid-table after 25 games, and they should be higher (7th xG table). At home they create plenty of good chances on a regular basis (1.5 xGF per game) so can cause Bayern a few issues here. Reigning champions Bayern Munich are four points clear of Dortmund as they bid for an eighth straight title. Their attacking process on the road is staggering, averaging 3.1 xGF per game, but they are much more vulnerable defensively (1.6 xGA per game). Bayern should win (77%), in a high-scoring game (59% O3.5), but we see both teams scoring (62% BTTS) - 1-3.

Back the 1-3 @ 8/1 (Sportsbook)

Werder to pick up vital point

Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen
Monday, 19:30 GMT
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Werder Bremen are in trouble at the bottom of the table, four points behind the relegation play-off place, and eight points from total safety. Their performances haven't been as bad as results suggest (14th xG table), and at home they are one of only 10 teams to boast a positive xGD (1.4 xGF, 1.3 xGA per game). Bayer Leverkusen stormed into the top four race after winning seven of their last nine games before the break, but their process on the road is alarmingly poor (1.4 xGF, 1.9 xGA per game). Werder are fancied to get something here, in a high scoring Monday night affair (60% O2.5, 59% BTTS) - 2-2.

Back the 2-2 @ 11/1 (Sportsbook)