Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every game of GW30

Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back to predict the score of every Bundesliga match of GW30, using expected goals (xG) data to find the betting value...

Gladbach too strong for Freiburg

Freiburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Friday, 19:30
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Freiburg are winless since the restart, as their poor underlying performances appear to have caught up with them. They sit eighth in the table, but rank only 14th in our xG table, and since the break have generated an average of 0.7 xGF per game. Borussia Monchengladbach got back to winning ways with an emphatic 4-1 over Union Berlin. They continue to be one of the leagues best attacking sides, averaging 2.4 xGF per game. They should prove too strong for Freiburg, with the model giving them a 60% chance of winning in a high-scoring game (68% O2.5, 64% BTTS) - 1-3,
Back the 1-3 @ 15.50

No stopping champions-elect Bayern

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayer Leverkusen edged past Freiburg last weekend after a thumping home defeat by Wolfsburg, a game that highlighted their defensive issues. Since the restart they have impressed in attack (1.9 xGF per game), but have allowed 5.3 xGA in the two games against teams in the top six (BMG & WOL). Bayern show no sign of slowing down, with their win over Fortuna last weekend the 14th in 15 league games. They remain in a different league process-wise to any other Bundesliga team, and their underlying numbers have improved drastically under Hansi Flick. Averaging 3.0 xGF per game, Bayern are fully expected to win here (58%), and we should be in for a treat of a game, with goals at both ends likely (57% O3.5, 72% BTTS) 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 12.00

Mainz woes to continue

Frankfurt vs Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Frankfurt made it back-to-back away wins last week, beating Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen, as they continue to create good chances on a regular basis. Since the restart, they have generated an average of 2.1 xGF per game, and that firepower should be enough to cause serious problems for Mainz here, even with a shorter rest time. Mainz are nervously looking over their shoulders after a 1-0 defeat against Hoffenheim, but their fortunes will not take a turn for the better unless they sort their defence out (2.0 xGA per game this season). They have allowed 2.6 xGA per game since the restart. Frankfurt are taken to win (62%), with goals on the cards (73% O2.5, 67% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Hoffenheim to make it three in a row

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Fortuna saw their six-game unbeaten run come to an end at the Allianz against league leaders Bayern Munich, a thumping 5-0 loss. Even without that result, Fortuna's results have flattered them of late based on performances, averaging 1.0 xGF and 1.5 xGA per game in their three games prior. At home this season they have allowed 2.0 xGA per game, so will allow chances in this game. Hoffenheim made it two wins from two with a victory at Mainz, yet another impressive attacking performance. Their displays since the restart have warranted more than seven points, with a process of 2.0 xGF and 1.5 xGA per game. We fancy the visitors to get another win here (52%), with over 2.5 goals (73%) and both teams to score (71%) highly likely - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 11.00

RBL to thump basement boys

RB Leipzig vs Paderborn
Saturday, 14:30
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RB Leipzig beat FC Koln emphatically last Monday, yet another away game in which they created 3.0 xGF (4.7 vs Mainz). Since the restart they have drawn their two home games, but this is a good game to get their home mojo back, and their process of 2.4 xGF and 1.4 xGA per game will be enough to inflict another thumping win on the Bundesliga's bottom side. Paderborn were hammered 6-1 by Dortmund, ending their three-game drawing streak, leaving them eight points behind the relegation play-off place. They look set to drop, and their defensive weakness is the main reason for this (1.9 xGA per game). RB Leipzig should win this comfortably (83%), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals, though a clean-sheet could be on the cards (49% BTTS) - 4-0.
Back the 4-0 @ 10.00

Dortmund to edge to nervy win

Dortmund vs Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 17:30
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Dortmund were frustrated in the first half of their game with Paderborn, but ran our 6-1 winners after a capitulation of a tired basement side. In the eight games prior to that game though, Dortmund had failed to generate 1.5 xGF, averaging just 1.1 xGF per game in that time. Defensively they have improved though, allowing 0.9 xGA per game in their last nine. Hertha have improved drastically since the break, a break that saw Bruno Labbadia appointed as manager. The changes have been stark to their process, with their attacking numbers up and defensive numbers down. Since the restart they have averaged 2.0 xGF and 1.2 xGA per game, ranking as the fourth best team in the league. They will give Dortmund a good game here, but the hosts are likely to prevail (61%), with both teams netting (57%), though we aren't expecting a huge amount of goals (61% U3.5) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.60

Wolfsburg to inflict another defeat on Werder

Werder Bremen vs Wolfsburg
Sunday, 12:30
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Werder Bremen's mini-run of two wins and a draw came crashing to an end in midweek, as they were comfortably beaten 3-0 by Frankfurt. It was yet another poor attacking display from Werder, and since the restart they have averaged just 0.6 xGF per game. Wolfsburg were also beaten by Frankfurt in their most recent league game, but they were extremely unfortunate to lose (xG: WOL 2.4 - 1.8 FRA). That was the second game in succession that the Wolves had created a host of chances, but their main strength this season has come in defence, where they have allowed the fewest non-penalty big chances (35% or greater) in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg should prove too strong for Werder here (53%), with it more likely than not that they keep a clean sheet (49% BTTS) in a low-scoring win (48% O2.5) - 0-2.
Back the 0-2 @ 11.50

Schalke's woes to continue in drab encounter

Union Berlin vs Schalke
Sunday, 14:30
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This game sees the two worst teams since the restart going head-to-head.
Union showed flashes of getting back to their best against Borussia Monchengladbach, but were ultimately second best. They have struggled in attack since the restart, and defence for that matter, but at home this season they have been a mid-table team (1.4 xGF, 1.5 xGA per game). Schalke have been terrible for some time now, with a 1-0 defeat at home to Werder Bremen their seventh defeat in an 11-game winless run. They have averaged 0.8 xGF per game in that time, so attacking areas is where they are seriously lacking. We expect them to struggle to create again here, with Union to edge to a victory (40%) in a low-scoring game (44% O2.5, 49% BTTS) - 1-0.
Back the 1-0 @ 8.80

FCK to get away win

Augsburg vs FC Koln
Sunday, 17:00
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Augsburg were rightly beaten by Hertha Berlin last weekend, meaning they have picked up only four points since the restart, a point at home to Paderborn and a win at struggling Schalke. Overall this season they have averaged 1.8 xGA per game, one of the worst defensive records in the league. Their defensive vulnerabilities will be fully tested here. FC Koln are winless since the break, but performances haven't been as bad as results suggest. Since the restart, they have averaged 2.2 xGF and 1.7 xGA per game, so their games see plenty of chances and goals. FC Koln's attacking powers will likely be too strong for Augsburg, with the visitors taken to win (42%) in a goal laden game (63% O2.5, 64% BTTS) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.80

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