West Brom v Burnley: Baggies to blow it again

West Brom's inability to keep out goals could come back to bite again when they take on Burnley on Monday evening, says Dave Tindall...

West Brom v Burnley
Monday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

West Brom leaking goals

It's often the case that the table sorts itself out quickly although the top end looks rather different than you'd expect so far.

However, it's not really a surprise to see West Brom already scrambling around just a point above the drop zone after taking just one point in four games.

That said, give them that position at the end of the campaign and they'd take it. The relegation market shows the Baggies at 1.59 to go down.

Their one point came at home to Chelsea and Slaven Bilic must still be having nightmares that it wasn't three.

West Brom roared into a 3-0 lead inside 27 minutes with Kyle Bartley scoring twice but Chelsea found three goals after the break to pinch a draw.

Conceding has been their big weakness this season. West Brom have already shipped 13 - the worst in the division.

Burnley yet to take a point

At least the Baggies have one point because Burnley have none.

The Clarets have only played three times but they've lost 4-2 at Leicester, 1-0 at home to Southampton and 3-1 away to Newcastle last time.

Sean Dyche's take? "I still believe in the young players who are supporting the first-team group and learning as they go.

"The performances haven't been too far away. We need to tidy up at the both ends of the pitch. We know that."

Ben Mee's absence from defence is clearly hurting them but at least ex-West Brom striker Jay Rodriguez should be back to face his former club.

Burnley are where they are for now although past experience suggests a climb up the table won't be long in coming.

West Brom unconvincing favourites

This is clearly an easier task for the hosts than their two home games so far, Leicester and Chelsea. But the fact Bilic's men conceded six goals in those 180 minutes suggests they will have to score two or even three to get it done.

West Brom are 2.58 to get their first win of the campaign while Burnley are 3.05. The Draw is the outsider of the three at 3.4 but may prove the best bet.

On the historical head-to-heads, West Brom have lost just one of their six Premier League meetings with Burnley although that was the latest in March 2018.

But prior to that 2-1 victory, Burnley had lost nine of their last 10 league visits to the Hawthorns.

BTTS looks better option

The markets suggest a lack of goals and that's reflected in the Under 2.5 and BTTS markets. Under 2.5 Goals is just 1.8 while Both teams to Score is slightly higher at 1.9.

For all Burnley's poor results, they have managed to score three times in their two Premier League road fixtures.

And when adding in the back end of last season, they've netted in their last six away games. That included a goal at Anfield.

With West Brom conceding goals galore, there must be every chance Burnley get on the scoresheet again so, if we work on that basis, it's a question of how to build a bet from there.

A 1-1 correct scoreline is a possible option at 7 but I'll get adventurous and head to the Half Time/Full Time market.

Burnley can cash in late

Looking at some of the stats on this game, this one stands out:

"West Brom are the only side yet to score in the final 30 minutes of a Premier League game this season, with their latest goal coming after 47 minutes (Matheus Pereira vs Everton). Meanwhile, they've shipped a league-high seven goals in the final half-hour so far this term."

Add in Burnley's ability to scrap for a point and there's scope to think West Brom lead at half-time before the visitors hit back after the break.

Therefore I'll back West Brom/Draw at 16.

Opta Stat

West Brom have had fewer shots than any other Premier League side so far this season (27). They also have the lowest expected goals (xG) total (1.5), but have scored five goals, meaning they've scored around three goals more than would normally be expected based on the quality of their chances.

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