Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW11

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions in Serie A as Napoli christen their newly renamed stadium...

Sassuolo to rediscover home form

Sassuolo v Benevento
Friday, 19:45
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Sassuolo are winless in their last three games at Mapei Stadium, and have averaged just 0.35 xGF per game across their last four matches. That ought to worry Roberto de Zerbi, but he'll be really concerned if his team fails to turn things around against the leaky defence of Benevento. Three points for the hosts - as anticipated by Infogol - would be enough to at least temporarily return them to the top four.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Crotone to earn first win of the season

Crotone v Spezia
Saturday, 14:00
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A slow start to the campaign means even a win at home to Spezia wouldn't be enough to lift Crotone off the foot of the table, but Infogol gives them a 44% chance against their fellow new boys. The away side won this fixture during both meetings in Serie B last term, but it already feels a bit like now or never for Giovanni Stroppa's hosts.

Back the 2-0 @ 17.00

Torino to rebound from derby heartbreak

Torino v Udinese
Saturday, 17:00
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Despite leading at the Juventus Stadium with 15 minutes remaining, Torino went home empty-handed and will need to rebuild for the visit of Udinese. Andrea Belotti scored the only goal of the game when these two met in June, and Infogol's model predicts another low-scoring game with just a 44% chance of more than 2.5 goals.

Back the 2-0 @ 16.50

Lazio to kick on after surviving European scare

Lazio v Verona
Saturday, 19:45
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Lazio made hard work of their crucial Champions League game, twice surrendering a lead at home to Club Brugge, but Simone Inzaghi's men passed their test and have European knockout football to look forward to. They can ride that high against a Verona team who will need to replicate their performance in a win at Atalanta to stand any chance of leaving the Olimpico with anything.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.40

Inter to stay unbeaten on the road

Cagliari v Inter Milan
Sunday, 11:30
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Inter will follow up their frustrating game against Shakhtar Donetsk with a potential banana skin in Sardinia, but Antonio Conte will have faith in his team to keep up an unbeaten away league run which stretches back to March. The Nerazzurri needed a Romelu Lukaku penalty to win the corresponding fixture last season, and the Belgian - who leads the league for xG this season - could well have a big part to play once more.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.60

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Atalanta to get their season back on track

Atalanta v Fiorentina
Sunday, 14:00
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Atalanta come into this game off the back of a vital win over Ajax, and the end of a trying Champions League group campaign will allow them to gain the Serie A focus they need. Infogol's model gives them a 65% chance of victory against opponents still winless on the road, and Fiorentina could end the weekend left ruing their failure to take maximum points from their more winnable recent home outings.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.40

Roma to walk away from Bologna with three points

Bologna v Roma
Sunday, 14:00
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Bologna's defeat to Inter was overshadowed by claims of a mole in Siniša Mihajlović's camp, but the Rossoblù will need to focus on the task at hand if they want to avoid another reverse. They'll be up against it, though, with Roma likely to be confident of victory at Renato Dall'Ara despite Pedro's red card harming their chances against Sassuolo last weekend.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.20

Napoli to win first league game at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli v Sampdoria
Sunday, 14:00
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Napoli's San Paolo Stadium was renamed in honour of the late club icon Diego Maradona earlier this month, and the Argentine's old club can mark the occasion with a fifth home win from six this season. Visitors Sampdoria are winless in six in all competitions, and this is reflected in the 68% chance handed to the hosts by Infogol's model.

Back the 3-0 @ 11.00

Juve to build on Camp Nou triumph

Genoa v Juventus
Sunday, 17:00
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Juventus secured top spot in their Champions League group with a 3-0 win in Barcelona, and can ride the high to earn another three points back in Italy. They go up against a Genoa side who have been better than their 19th place suggests, but who nonetheless should give the Bianconeri too many chances to add to the 20 goals they have registered in 10 league games so far.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.80

Milan to keep the wins coming

AC Milan v Parma
Sunday, 19:45
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Having clinched their Europa League progress with a week to spare, Milan have been able to keep their focus on domestic matters. However, even a below-par Rossoneri should have too much for a Parma team averaging 2.28 xGA per game on the road. Infogol's model makes the home side 72% favourites, but it wouldn't be a huge shock to see the visitors get on the scoresheet.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.60

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