Bundesliga xG Tips

 Bundesliga xG Tips: Freiburg and Hoffenheim to hold firm in Gameweek 18

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the second half of the season begins...

Bayern to pick up where they left off

Bayern Munich v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Friday, 19:30
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After averaging 2.85 xGF per game across their last five in the Bundesliga, Bayern will return from the winter break confident of another victory as they aim to wrap up the title earlier than last season. Opponents Gladbach are winless in five, with some humbling defeats against Köln and Freiburg during that run, though their hammering of Julian Nagelsmann's side in the cup may give them some hope.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 11.50

Leverkusen to turn over a new leaf

Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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After ending 2021 with a winless run, Leverkusen will hope the new year brings a change of fortunes as they prepare to welcome Union Berlin to the BayArena. These teams drew 1-1 at the end of last season and the start of this, and are currently separated by just one point, but Infogol's model backs the home side to come out on top in what threatens to be a close-run game.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 8.60

Freiburg to keep up unlikely Champions League push

Freiburg v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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Victory over Leverkusen before the break sees Freiburg sit in third place at the halfway point in the season, though their underlying numbers have them a little lower in the table, and the joint-best defensive record is a factor. They're up against an Arminia side averaging 0.88 xGF on the road, and Infogol expects Christian Streich's side to improve on the goalless draw they earned at SchücoArena back in August.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Stuttgart to remember where the goal is

Greuther Fürth v Stuttgart
Saturday, 14:30
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Fürth earned just their fifth point of the season last time out, but an average of 2.05 xGA per game will continue to concern Stefan Leitl's side as they prepare to welcome Stuttgart. Pellegrino Matarazzo's men hit five in the reverse fixture, and they're expected to complete the league double over the Bundesliga's basement boys and recover from drawing a blank in each of their last two outings.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.60

Hoffenheim to keep top four hopes alive

Hoffenheim v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Augsburg will hope the big-money signing of US starlet Ricardo Pepi can help them climb the table in 2022, but they'll be up against it when they face Hoffenheim. Only three Bundesliga sides have a better xGF return than the hosts' 1.80 per game, and a solid unbeaten run leading into the turn of the year means Sebastian Hoeneß and his men have Champions League qualification in their sights.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 8.40

Tedesco to rebound from first Leipzig loss

RB Leipzig v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Defeat at home to Arminia Bielefeld is not how RB Leipzig will have wanted to end 2021, but new boss Domenico Tedesco has now had a good amount of time to work with his squad and Infogol backs them to begin the new year with a win, Die Roten Bullen are averaging 2.38 xGF at home - second only to Bayern - and should have the edge against a Mainz side coming off three straight away losses.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Dortmund to cut short Frankfurt's winning run

Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30
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Marco Rose's Borussia Dortmund reign got up and running with a demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt on the opening weekend of the season, and the manager will be aiming to complete the double over opponents who have picked things up after a slow start. Infogol favours the visitors despite their frustrating loss against Hertha Berlin last time out, with both teams backed to find the net.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-3 @ 15.00

Hertha to continue pulling away from danger

Hertha Berlin v Köln
Sunday, 14:30
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Hertha have already seen results improve under Tayfun Korkut, picking up a third of their 21 points under the former Turkey international, and Infogol's model backs them to gain revenge for their opening weekend defeat at RheinEnergieStadion. Köln's away average of 1.83 xGA per game isn't exactly convincing, though back-to-back wins before the break means they can't be written off entirely.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 11.50

Wolfsburg to blunt Bochum in bottom-half battle

Bochum v Wolfsburg
Sunday, 16:30
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Two sides on 20 points face off at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, with December defeats leaving both Bochum and Wolfsburg looking over their shoulders. The hosts' 1.22 xGF average could be an issue as the season goes on, though they have been better at home than on the road, but Wolfsburg's relatively impressive away tally can be enough for them to put a recent run of defeats behind them and claim victory.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.00