Tottenham v Chelsea: Tuchel's team will book place in final

For Dan Fitch the value is firmly with Chelsea in Wednesday's EFL Cup semi-final second-leg, with Thomas Tuchel's team having beaten Spurs twice this season.

Spurs second-string not up to task

Tottenham will need to make a historic comeback if they are to reach the final of the EFL Cup for the second successive season.

Spurs lost the away leg 2-0. With key players missing, the lack of depth in the Tottenham squad was clear to see and Chelsea's goals came courtesy of two errors from Japhet Tanganga, who came into the back three to replace the injured Eric Dier.

Dier was again missing against Morecambe in the FA Cup on Saturday, as the Tottenham second-string failed to impress once more. Spurs were a goal down at half-time against the League One side, before mounting a second-half comeback and winning 3-1.

It was a poor display all round from the starting XI, but Tanguy Ndombele received particular criticism, having been booed off by the home crowd after he showed little urgency in leaving the pitch, having been substituted.

There seems to be a chance that Dier could return for this one, based on Antonio Conte's post-match comments after the win over Morecambe. Sergio Reguilon also seems to be back in contention to play, but Heung-Min Son is out and, though the South Korean has been in indifferent form, he's nevertheless been a regular scorer under Conte.

Chelsea making cup progress with ease

Chelsea have one foot in the EFL Cup final and now just have to complete the job.

The Champions League holders are rated at just 1.14 to make it through to the EFL Cup final at Wembley, thanks to their 2-0 win in the first-leg at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea really didn't have to exert themselves to claim that victory, such was the poor performance from their London rivals.

Thomas Tuchel's team found things similarly easy in the FA Cup over the weekend, as they romped to a 5-1 win over Chesterfield. Romelu Lukaku scored the third goal, which was the first time that he's found the net since the recent controversy over an interview with the Italian media.

Thiago Silva and N'Golo Kante missed the first leg having tested positive for Covid and have yet to return. Edouard Mendy is away at AFCON, while Trevoh Chalobah, Reece James and Ben Chilwell all missed the Chesterfield game with injuries.

Value strongly with Chelsea

Chelsea are the narrow favourites at 2.66, with Tottenham at 2.74 and the draw at 3.5.

There is surely value in Chelsea at that price. They have beaten Spurs twice this season, winning 3-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium earlier in the campaign when Nuno was still in charge. So along with the first leg, they are essentially 5-0 up on aggregate in encounters this season, which makes their odds look generous.

Without Cristian Romero and possibly Eric Dier out, Tottenham could lack class in their back three, which Chelsea will surely exploit. If you want to play it safe you can back Chelsea in the Draw No Bet market and still get odds of 1.96.

Spurs can't break teams down

I was confident that both teams to score would land in the first leg, but Tottenham were lacklustre in attack and didn't carve out a worthwhile chance until the closing minutes. Now the pressure is on them to get themselves back into this tie, which means that Chelsea can afford to sit deep and play on the break.

Taking control of a game and breaking teams down, is not Tottenham's strong point, so it's hard to see how they will score if Chelsea simply try to keep things tight, especially with Son out. Under 2.5 goals is 1.95.

You can back 'No' in the both teams to score at 2.2. An away win and under 3.5 goals is 3.7, with Chelsea at 5.0 to win to nil.

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