Ligue 1 Tips

Ligue 1 Tips: Strasbourg to continue the fight for top-three spot

After five winning tips from his last seven selections on French football, James Eastham looks at the latest round of games taking place this weekend...

High goals the smart selection

Nantes vs Bordeaux (10th vs 19th)
Sun, 14:00 BST
Live on Betfair Live Video

Backing a high-scoring encounter is the way to go ahead of Nantes' clash against Bordeaux at Stade de la Beaujoire on Sunday afternoon.

Bordeaux are in desperate trouble near the foot of the table and have no choice but to go for the win here. In the relegation zone and four points from potential safety with only five matchdays to go, les Girondins are in serious danger of losing their top-flight status.

Bordeaux have been involved in high-scoring games all season. With 79 goals conceded in their 33 games to date, they have one of Ligue 1's worst defensive records of all time. Twenty two of their 33 games (67%) have had Over 2.5 Goals (the division's highest tally), with 17 out of 33 (52%) having Over 3.5 Goals (also the division's highest tally).

Nantes' games have been lower-scoring overall, but they have a trio of tremendous attackers in their ranks, in the form of centre-forward Randal Kolo Muani (who will be at Eintracht Frankfurt next season), plus supporting duo Ludovic Blas and Nigeria international Moises Simon.

Those three will be licking their lips in anticipation at facing a Bordeaux defence that has gifted goals so carelessly this campaign. With Bordeaux compelled to throw themselves forward at some point in search of a victory, chances should be plentiful at both ends of the pitch.

Over 2.5 Goals is available at around evens. Given the season-long stats on Bordeaux, the quality of Nantes' attackers and the way the game is likely to unfold, those odds are too good to overlook.

Motivation gives Strasbourg the edge

Lille vs Strasbourg (9th vs 4th)
Sun, 16:05 BST
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video

Having watched these two sides recently it's difficult to understand why Lille are such clear favourites to collect all three points at home to Strasbourg at Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Sunday afternoon.

Lille are 2.42 to win, with Strasbourg 3.5 and The Draw 3.25. Yet Strasbourg have been the better side recently, and certainly have more to play for.

Strasbourg are locked in the battle for a Champions League spot and took another step towards securing a top-three spot for when they beat direct rivals Rennes 2-1 in midweek. Strasbourg head into this game on an 11-match unbeaten run (W5-D6-L0) and should be able to field their strongest starting line-up, too.

In contrast, Lille have nothing to play for. They've fallen away from the European places in recent weeks, and it was debatable whether a side that won the Ligue 1 title last season was fully motivated by the challenge of finishing in the "positions" anyway.

Without a win in their last four matches, Lille lost 2-1 at home to local rivals Lens last weekend, and then lost by the same scoreline away to bottom-half side Reims in midweek. Manager Jocelyn Gourvennec has a task on his hands to keep his players properly focused during the remaining weeks of the season.

The big price on Strasbourg to win throws up alternative ways to support the visitors. Our pick is to back Strasbourg on the Draw No Bet market. With this selection, you'll get your money back if the game ends all-square - a useful safety net considering Strasbourg's recent high draw rate - and make a profit if Strasbourg collect all three points.