Sweden U21 v Portugal U21: Favourites won't mirror Germany result

Sweden U21 v Portugal U21
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Sweden U21 5.30, Portugal U21 1.80, The Draw 3.75

If you've read any European U21 Championship content on Betting.Betfair, you'll know that Sweden U21 have followed a narrative throughout the process, from qualifiers to tournament: be discounted pre-match, assume an awkward position mid-match and then valiantly rally at the end of the match.

Such a policy saw them top their qualifying group, progress through their play-off, triumph in their opener in Czech Republic and earn their place in the quarter-finals deep into their final group tie, but they surprisingly operated to a completely different formula in the semi-finals.

Rather than rely on their stamina, fighting spirit and opposition tiredness and complacency, the Scandinavians set about dictating the cadence of the contest, and the results were spectacular.

Having not scored a goal earlier than the 56th minute throughout the group stage, they charged into a 2-0 lead within 26 minutes of their first knockout tie against Denmark U21 and still found time for one of their late goal sprees, notching in the 83rd and 95th minutes to achieve a 4-1 success.

Remarkably, that margin of victory wasn't the most emphatic in the semi-finals as Portugal U21 took apart favourites Germany U21 5-0, striking four times before the 46th minute and seeing out their enormous advantage expertly.

As a consequence, Portugal U21 are odds-on to win the final in 90 minutes. However, even though this column described them as the "best team at the tournament" before the evisceration of Germany U21, our advice is to lay them.

The win over the frontrunners was their first in three games and their only other since the competition began came against then-second favourites England U21, hinting that their standard dips in supposedly less complex fixtures.

They were held when they facing Sweden U21 in Group B. Yes, the Swedes delivered that 1-1 draw with one of their late specialties (89th minute on that occasion), but it took Portugal U21 until the 82nd minute to make the initial breakthrough, and that against a side yet to keep a clean sheet.

Both Teams to Score

Portugal U21 shouldn't have any problem fulfilling their half of this bet: they have netted in three of their four European U21 Championship matches having done likewise in all ten of their qualifiers, and are up against a Sweden U21 side that, as mentioned above, have conceded in every encounter.

The outsiders have been shut out just once in Czech Republic though and have two top scorer contenders in Manchester City striker John Guidetti and Groningen midfielder Simon Tibbling.

Both teams scored in their Group B finale when ultimately a 0-0 draw would have sufficed, so expect more of the same in this winner-takes-all showdown.

Best Bet: Lay Portugal U21 to win @ 1.81
Other Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 2.10