Serie A Betting: Bck over-rated Roma to produce low-scoring affair

Roma v Genoa
Sun, 14:00
Live on BT Sport Europe

Roma's implosion continued in midweek when they went out of the Coppa Italia against Spezia, and Genoa suffered a similar humiliation, losing to third tier Alessandria. With a winter break looming, it feels as if the losing manager in this game may well lose their job as well as the match.

For all of their recent issues, Roma are still the likelier winners here: Genoa have now lost four games in a row and have won only four games all season, none of them outside Marassi. That said, I won't be backing Roma at 1.52 to get the job done. How can you support them with any faith? Yes, a 0-0 draw in Naples was a good result, but it's now seven games without a win, and they are staggering towards Panettone-time.

The most interesting aspect of this match up is the number of goals that there are likely to be: there was a time when Roma (along with Napoli) were the goal kings of Serie A, in a patch from mid-September to mid-October every single one of their games had at least 2.5 goals, with a 4-4, a 3-2, a 5-1 and a 4-2 thrown in. They were on fire, playing that classic Rudi Garcia style, and it was working.

Lately, though, they've been a different animal altogether. Since their 6-1 defeat by Barcelona,all five of their matches have gone Under 2.5 goals, with three consecutive 0-0 draws, and yet I feel that they're still being priced up as the Roma of six weeks ago, rather than the one that we have seen lately. There is no way that Over 2.5 goals should be favourite here at around1.81, and I heartily recommend backing Under 2.5 goals in this one at 2.14.

Genoa play their part too. All of their matches against Serie A's big guns have finished unsuccessfully, but Under 2.5 goals, and with Gian Piero Gasperini likely to try and keep it tight again as he bids to save his job, Genoa may well be able to stifle Roma. On top of that, both strikers Diego Perotti and Leonardo Pavoletti are suspended for elbowing opponents.

0-0 in the Correct Score market is a runner at 14.50, but the likeliest outcome here is a low scoring home win.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals in Roma v Genoa @ 2.14

Inter v Lazio
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

I honestly thought that Inter would be unbackable at home against Lazio on Sunday night, but that isn't the case. It may not look the sexiest price, but Inter are trading at 1.82 for the win, and that is a must bet.

Inter are going to be Winter Champions whatever happens here, and while I'm still unconvinced about them as Scudetto winners, their home form has been excellent. They've won their last four at San Siro, all to nil, and they face a Lazio team without a Serie A win since October 25.

Lazio have failed every time that they have faced a title contender, and there's no reason for that to change here. I fully expected Inter to be trading at around 1.50, and so the 1.82 looks generous.

Stefano Pioli is still hanging by a thread despite a Coppa Italia win over Udinese and it's worth noting they played two days later than Inter, so will be even more fatigued amid an injury crisis. When your goalkeeper hurts himself while celebrating, you know it's a bad year.

Recommended Bet: Back Inter to beat Lazio @ 1.82

Verona v Sassuolo
Sunday, 14:00

I'm sorely tempted by the Under 2.5 goals in Carpi v Juve at 1.74 (bloodless win, foot off the gas, etc etc), but for this week's third selection I'll take the 2.74 about Sassuolo winning at Verona.

Verona have been pitiful all season, and even though their talisman Luca Toni is back now, the fact that they rely on him so much sums up their deficiencies. They haven't won a League game all season, and that tells you more than you ever need to know.

Sassuolo aren't the same on their travels as they are at home, but they looked on their way to putting that right against Sampdoria last time, and if they can take three points from Marassi then they can certainly do the same at the Bentegodi.

Sassuolo have been one of this remarkable season's success stories, and I fully expect them to march towards Christmas with a win, even with Domenico Berardi still suspended.

Recommended Bet: Back Sassuolo to beat Verona @ 2.74