Watford v Liverpool: Coutinho can make all the difference for Klopp

Watford v Liverpool
Sunday December 20, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Watford

Three straight wins have taken Watford into seventh, a point and two places above Liverpool, and they have the second-best points total for a promoted team at this stage of a Premier League season.

Their progress under Quique Sanchez Flores has been steady rather than spectacular and, with Leicester in the latter category, they have been rather overshadowed as the 'small club' success story of the season.

Likewise their strike duo of Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney have been superb with 15 goals between them but eclipsed by the 26 goals of Leicester's Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez. Their qualities both as a team and as individuals are being recognised now, however, and this looks a big test for Liverpool as much as it is for Watford.

One factor in Watford's success has been their settled line-up, with six players having been ever-present (or virtually so) and others such as midfielder Ben Watson establishing themselves as first choices as the season has progressed.

Watford have injuries - Joel Ekstrand, Sebastian Prodl, Tommy Hoban and Valon Behrami have all been sidelined - but Flores should have the advantage of being able to put out his preferred line-up again.

Liverpool

Liverpool's 6-1 demolition of Southampton in the Capital One Cup at the beginning of the month prompted talk of them as title contenders but the hype has cooled after a three-match winless run since then - a 2-0 defeat at Newcastle, a goalless draw against FC Sion in the Europa League and a 2-2 at home to West Brom, where they were saved by Divock Origi's late equaliser.

That has left them 11 points behind leaders Leicester and still five points off fourth-placed Manchester United, which makes the festive period crucial to Jurgen Klopp's hopes of challenging for a Champions League place.

The spotlight turned back on the defence and goalkeeper Simon Mignolet last weekend with the concession of two set-piece goals against West Brom, which was a sign that the old failings are still there.

Dejan Lovren went off with a knee injury in that game and is expected to be out for three weeks, which means Mamadou Sakho, only just returned from injury, is likely to go straight back into central defence.

That is typical of the mixed news on the injury front for Klopp, who has Daniel Sturridgesidelined again but has welcomed back midfielder Jordan Henderson (he scored the opener against West Brom on his first league start since August).

Match Odds

The bulk of Watford's points have come against lower-class teams and the question for them here is whether their growing confidence will bring a turnaround in their fortunes against the better sides.

Their record against top-half teams is W1 D1 L5, ranking them sixth-bottom on that measure in terms of points per game, while five of their seven wins have been against teams in the bottom six of the overall table.

The problem is that, while only five teams in the Premier League have conceded fewer goals than Watford's 16 against, just five have scored fewer than their 18.

That combination allows Flores's well-drilled side to frustrate and ultimately find enough to beat lesser teams but for the most part has not been sufficient to overcome or even match sides from the top half of the table.

The difference is clear from the fact that 17 of their 25 points have come in the seven games where they kept a clean sheet, whereas their record when conceding is W2 D2 L5 (the two wins being against strugglers Newcastle and Aston Villa).

They have conceded in only three of their Premier League home games this season but have lost on each occasion, all against top-half teams (1-0 v Crystal Palace, 3-0 v Arsenal and 2-1 v Manchester United).

That indicates a good chance for Liverpool if they score and, while there are still some doubts about their attack, the stats show they have had only three blanks in 14 games under Klopp in all competitions. When they have scored, their record is W7 D3 L1.

Notably, Philippe Coutinho was not in the starting line-up for two of those three non-scoring games under Klopp and Opta point out that Liverpool have scored just two goals in the three Premier League games the Brazilian has missed this season (0.7 per game), compared to an average of 1.4 goals per game with him in the side.

Coutinho is clearly crucial to Klopp's gameplan right now, as demonstrated by his match-changing contributions to the away wins at Chelsea (3-1) and Manchester City (4-1), and his return to the starting line-up against West Brom last week was a timely boost going into the festive programme.

The away form under Klopp was impressive until the limp 2-0 defeat at Newcastle - four wins out of four prior to that, including those three stellar performances at Chelsea, Manchester City and Southampton.

Klopp will be looking for a return to that level after the return of Coutinho, who could make the difference if Liverpool's pressing game wins the ball for him high up the pitch.

Even if the hype was somewhat overblown, Liverpool have improved under Klopp and justifiably are strong favourites.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

With their defensive organisation, Watford rank joint-second for under 2.5 goals in the Premier League (10 out of 16, 63%) and Liverpool are not far behind (nine out of 16, 56%).

But there are some alterations to those figures when taking into account this type of match-up. Watford have had four out of seven over 2.5 goals (57%) against top-half teams, while Liverpool have had two out of three over 2.5 goals on the road under Klopp.

That indicates over 2.5 goals is more of a possibility than odds of 2.16 indicate.

Asian Handicap

Liverpool's record on the road under Klopp and Watford's unconvincing results against top-half teams point most strongly to an away win, but it looks worth trying to find some way of enhancing the odds to make a bet more worthwhile.

Liverpool off -1 on the Asian handicap at 2.76 is one option, which amounts to no bet if Klopp's team win by a single goal but pays out at the bigger odds for anything better than that.

Those impressive big-margin wins at Chelsea, Manchester City and Southampton indicate a reasonable chance of Liverpool doing that.

While Watford's defensive record merits respect and suggests they can keep the scores close, they have conceded at least two goals in six of the seven games where their defence has been breached.

Although Flores's side have lost only two games by more than a goal (against Manchester City and Arsenal), there is a reasonable prospect of Liverpool getting away from them if Coutinho's first away start since the 4-1 win at City brings a return to that sort of form.

Recommended Bet

Back Liverpool off -1 on Asian Handicap at 2.76 (1pt)