Chelsea v Arsenal: Conte's men too good for Gunners

"Chelsea have won without conceding in seven of their 10 home games since switching to a back three."

Back Chelsea to Win to Nil at 3.35

Chelsea v Arsenal
Saturday 04 February, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports

Chelsea

When Chelsea lost 3-0 to Arsenal in September, the Blues' title odds soared over 30/1 on the exchange.

That defeat followed on from the 2-1 home loss to Liverpool and some were saying Chelsea and new boss Antonio Conte were a busted flush.

And then, in the footballing equivalent of Dylan going electric at the Newport Folk Festival (one for the younger readers there), Conte switched to a back three and the world was never the same again.

Well, not quite, but the effect it had on Chelsea was staggering. Since the low point of the Emirates, the men from Stamford Bridge have won 15 out of 17 in the Premier League, made sunrise look inconsistent and kicked nine points clear in the title race.

Conte wants revenge on Arsenal and, reflecting on that 3-0 loss, said: "I think this could be a good chance for us to show that the second part of the season we are a totally different team if you compare us to the previous game."

Arsenal

It seems Arsenal will forever pick out the banana skins on the path marked 'title this way' and they suffered their biggest pratfall yet when somehow losing 2-1 at home to Watford in midweek.

With Chelsea being held by Liverpool, the Gunners could have closed the gap to six points. They didn't and their Groundhog Day existence continues.

That was Arsenal's third Premier League defeat in the last eight games and that's a worry for Arsene Wenger as it's the same number they'd lost in their previous 30.

They're the only team unbeaten in London derbies (three wins and a draw) and, with 27 goals, are the highest away scorers in the top flight.

But those are straws to clutch at. To have any chance of winning the title they need something heavy on shock value. A big win at Chelsea would be just that but do they have it in them?

Match Odds

Chelsea are 1.99 to win their ninth straight home game in the Premier League. The aggregate score in that run is 24-3. Arsenal are 4.30 which seems short enough given how strong Chelsea are at home. The draw is 3.70.

If recent form points to the Blues, so does any head-to-head analysis.

Chelsea have won this fixture for the last four seasons, producing scorelines of 2-0, 2-0, 6-0 and 2-1. Arsenal's last goal at Stamford Bridge was a Theo Walcott strike in January 2013.

Arsenal last did the double over Chelsea in their astonishing unbeaten campaign of 2003/4 - a season which didn't include a home loss to Watford. Times have changed.

Over 2.5 goals

It's a finely balanced market with Overs the slight favourite at 1.94. Unders is 2.04.

It's quite correct to count Leicester at home as 'Ground Zero' for Chelsea as that was their first game at Stamford Bridge with a back three. Including that match, Overs has landed in six of their eight games. The exceptions were the 1-0 over West Brom and the 2-0 against Hull in their most recent home contest.

As for Arsenal, Overs has again been the most popular outcome with eight of their 11 road trips featuring three goals or more.

If we narrow it down to just games against other teams in the top six, Chelsea have beaten Man Utd 4-0 and Spurs 2-1 at home. You could add in the 2-1 loss to Liverpool but that was from a different era.

To Score

Diego Costa hasn't gone more than two games this season without scoring. As his current 'drought' is two, you could argue he's due. The 2.24 may look good business although he didn't score in the home wins over Man Utd or Spurs.

He's netted two goals in his four games against Arsenal but that doesn't really swing the vote one way or the other.

Alexis Sanchez has scored 12 of his 17 goals away from home so is certainly backable on that basis at 3.40.

But Chelsea look so solid in defence with their three centre-backs and double defensive shield of Nemanja Matic and the omnipresent N'Golo Kante that I'm loathe to back anyone to score against them.

And that leads me to.....

Chelsea Win to Nil

Chelsea have won without conceding in seven of their 10 home games since switching to a back three. They've also shut out the opposition in six of their last 10 away matches.

History helps argue the case too as Chelsea have won to nil in the last three editions of this fixture at Stamford Bridge.

The obvious statistical custard pie is that since drawing 0-0 at Leicester in August, Arsenal have scored in every away game. That's an impressive sequence of 16 matches.

However, all runs come to an end and logic says if anyone can stop them it's Chelsea. Therefore, it's time for role reversal. Arsenal won to nil at the Emirates in September and on Saturday I'm going to back Conte's Premier League leaders to gain the perfect revenge.

Chelsea to win to nil is 3.35 and that will do me.

Ref watch

Martin Atkinson is the man in the middle for this lunchtime kick-off. The West Yorkshire ref has shown 90 yellow cards in 23 matches this season (average 3.91 per game) and also shown a red to Aaron Cresswell in another London derby - Crystal Palace v West Ham.

He's actually been in charge for two of Chelsea's three defeats - the 2-1 loss to Liverpool and 2-0 reverse at Spurs although he did oversee the Blues' 4-0 hammering of Manchester United. He's twice taken the name of Pedro (an easier one to spell than Azpilicueta I guess).

The last time he reffed an Arsenal game, Wenger's men lost 2-1 at Manchester City although he only booked one Gunner (Gabriel Paulista).

Recommended Bets

Back Chelsea to Win to Nil at 3.35