La Liga Betting: Back Real Sociedad to test stuttering Real Madrid

"Madrid threw away a lead at Sevilla, lost to Celta Vigo at the Bernabéu, scraped past Málaga and were dumped out of the cup. Zinedine Zidane must be wondering what hit him."

Real Betis v Barcelona
Sunday, 11:00
Live on Sky Sports 2

Whisper it softly, but we could just have a three-way title race back on our hands. A Real Madrid cakewalk looked to be on the cards earlier this month, but their swift loss of form and confidence has breathed life into Sevilla and Barcelona's hopes of reeling them in over the second half of the season.

Barça have looked like a team reborn in the last few weeks, compiling a run of five successive wins across league and cup games. They were mightily impressive against Eibar last weekend, netting four unanswered goals to hand this column a nice winner, and produced another scintillating attacking display against Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey on Thursday night (5-2).

It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the Camp Nou. The absence of Sergio Busquets is a concern with the Champions League on the horizon, while doubts over Luis Enrique's future refuse to go away. But such issues tend to fade into the background when Lionel Messi is firing as he is at the moment; he has scored six goals and laid on two assists already in 2017, dragging the team's results up to his level.

They won't find things easy against Real Betis, who have tightened up at home since shipping six to Real Madrid in October. Víctor Sánchez has put his faith in a conservative back five and has been vindicated by a run of five clean sheets in six at the Benito Villamarín. The attack is not so fluent - they are reliant on the evergreen Rubén Castro for inspiration - but with the Los Verdiblancos fully ten points above the relegation zone, the formula appears to be working.

Barça might have scored nine in a week, but both Real Sociedad and Villarreal have made them sweat away from home in recent weeks. They are usually far stronger in the second half of away matches - in their last eight league games away from the Camp Nou, their first/second-half goal split is 5/15. That gives us a couple of betting angles worth exploring.

Recommended Bets
Back 'Second Half' in the Half With Most Goals market at Evens
Back Draw/Barca HT/FT at 4.90

Espanyol v Sevilla
Sunday, 15:15
Live on Sky Sports 1

They probably expected things to be a little more straightforward than they ended up being, but Sevilla did eventually manage to put struggling Osasuna to the sword last Sunday, edging a seven-goal thriller at El Sadar. That's now five La Liga wins on the spin for Jorge Sampaoli's great entertainers, who are growing in confidence with each passing week.

Sunday's game against Espanyol should be easy on the eye. After a little blip, Quique Sánchez Flores' side returned to winning ways against Granada, the crafty Pablo Piatti impressing again and José Antonio Reyes notching his first goal for the club ahead of a reunion with his former employers. They are on a seven-game ubeaten run on home soil, so will be hopeful of testing their visitors on Sunday.

The betting angle here is to back goals. Sevilla's last eight games in all competitions (and 15 of their last 16) have gone over the 2.5-goal mark - many of them by a distance. The defensive solidity that was Espanyol's calling card earlier in the campaign has also worn away: they haven't kept a clean sheet in six and far less potent attacks than Sevilla's have found the net at the RCDE Stadium in recent weeks.

Given that the first game between these sides ended 6-4 in Sevilla's favour, the over 3.5 goals is hugely tempting at 3.20. But on this occasion we'll play it safe and take on the 2.5 line at close to evens.

Recommended Bet
Back over 2.5 goals at 1.94

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

And so to the league leaders, who have had a pretty rotten time of it since a big win over Granada early in January. Since then, Los Merengues have thrown away a lead at Sevilla, lost to Celta Vigo at the Bernabéu, scraped past Málaga and been dumped out of the Copa del Rey. Zinedine Zidane must be wondering what hit him.

The bad news doesn't stop at the form book, either. Injuries to Dani Carvajal, Marcelo and Luka Modrić have left the starting XI looking a bit ropey. That is especially true at at right-back/right wing-back, where Brazilian stand-in Danilo is fast becoming public enemy number one on the back of some comically unconvincing displays.

Real Sociedad have only won three league games at the Bernabéu in their history but are having a fantastic season: they start the weekend in fifth, level on points with Atlético Madrid. Their away form - four wins in five, albeit against limited opposition - will also provide encouragement ahead of their trip to the capital.

La Real shipped five against Barcelona in the cup in midweek, but rarely seem to be knocked off course by such results; out-of-the-blue thrashings at the hands of Deportivo La Coruña and Sevilla raised eyebrows, but both were followed by a brace of businesslike league wins, which is testament to the squad's level-headedness under Eusebio Sacristán.

The away side are without left-back Yuri (suspended), which is a blow, but we like their chances of giving Madrid something to think about.

Recommended Bet
Back both teams to score at 1.69