Rugby League World Cup – Week 3

Fiji v ItalyFiji has yet to be tested during the World Cup, scoring 58 points against the USA, and followed it up with a 72-6 hammering of Wales. Italy bounced back after their Week 1 loss to Ireland, with a comfortable 46-0 victory over the USA. Unfortunately for Italy, even if they upset Fiji, they are unlikely to progress to the knockout stage due to Fiji’s superior for-and-against. Former Tigers teammates Kevin Naiqama and James Tedesco will square off at fullback, while Italy has named Terry Campese in the No.6 jersey again, but it remains to be seen if he plays after missing the first two pool games. Tedesco played in the halves in the win over the USA and would fill the role again if Campese is out. This will be Fiji’s biggest test to date, but it won’t be all one-way traffic against an Italian side containing the likes of Tedesco, Vaughan and Brown. The Wolf is also expecting Fiji to already have their eyes on the quarter-finals, making the 23.5 line too big to cover.
Best: Italy +23.5 ($1.90)
Value: 1st Tryscorer & Match Winner: Suliasi Vunivalu & Fiji ($6)

New Zealand v TongaThe Wolf tipped Tonga to win Pool B at $3 and isn’t ruling out an upset here after their unbeaten start to the World Cup. They thumped Scotland 50-4 in their opening game and followed it up with an impressive 32-18 win over bitter rivals, Samoa. The Kiwis were also too good for Samoa, winning 38-8 and also hammered Scotland by 74-6 last week. The additions of Jason Taumalolo and Andrew Fifita to the Tongan side for this World Cup can’t be understated and The Wolf is all over Tonga with +9.5 start.
Best: Tonga +9.5 ($1.90)
Value: Tonga ($3.35)

Samoa v ScotlandSamoa will be looking to put the disappointment of their 32-18 loss to Tonga behind them, with a convincing victory over Scotland to book their spot in the quarter-finals. Scotland have been a major disappointment this tournament, scoring just 10 points and conceding a massive 124 points across just two matches. If things weren’t bad enough for the Scots, they had to send home three players from their squad for misconduct including captain Danny Brough. He is their best player and it’s hard to see anything other than a comfortable Samoan victory.
Best: Samoa -34.5 ($1.90)
Value: Either Y.Tonumaipea, R.Leutele, M.Wright to score first try ($2.50)

Australia v LebanonLebanon can book their spots in the quarter-finals with an unlikely win over Australia. Fortunately for Lebanon their Week 1 win over France could be enough to secure their place in the knockout phase unless France upsets England. Players like Mitchell Moses and former Kangaroo, Robbie Farah will want strong performances against Australia to show their worth, while Kangaroos winger Josh Mansour, who has Lebanese heritage will enjoy the occasion. Australia will field a reshuffled backline for the contest, with Billy Slater and Josh Dugan rested for the clash, alongside Michael Morgan and Josh McGuire. Lebanon were very gallant in their 29-10 loss to England last week, but should be no match for an Australian side with bigger fish to fry.
Best: Australia -44.5 ($1.90)
Value: Australia First Tryscorer – Dane Gagai ($4.50)

USA v PNGNot much analysis is needed for this contest. USA have been terrible, scoring 12 points and conceding 104 across their first two matches. Meanwhile, PNG is flying with two wins from two starts. They’ve scored 64 points and conceded just 12 points. The other advantage for PNG is that all of their pool games have been in Port Moresby where they are almost unbeatable especially for minnows like the USA. The Wolf can see crowd favourite Garry Lo helping himself to a few tries here.
Best: PNG -59.5 ($1.90)
Value: Garry Lo to score 3+ tries ($2.35)

Ireland v WalesIreland have been the surprise packets of the tournament and will be looking to finish their World Cup campaign off on a winning note. They outplayed and outclassed Italy 36-12 in Week 1 and were very gallant in Port Moresby, going down to PNG by 14-6. Meanwhile, Wales have struggled throughout the tournament, conceding an average of 52 points across their first two matches. They do have a good record against Ireland, winning five of the past six clashes. The Wolf isn’t certain if Ireland has to strike power to cover the big line, but doesn’t want to be relying on Wales either. Unders is the way he is leaning here.
Best: Under 50.5 ($1.90)
Value: First Tryscorer – Liam Kay ($6)

France v EnglandFrance would need to upset England if they’re any chance of making the quarter-finals and would have to rely on Australia thumping Lebanon. England have defeated France by a margin of 28 points or more in their last five encounters and it’s hard to see anything changing here. France had their chances in Week 1 against Lebanon and will find this too tough against an English side looking to take momentum into the knockout phase of the tournament. The Wolf can see England as the most likely side to knock off Australia despite losing to the Kangaroos in Week 1 and should get Sam Burgess back soon. 
Best: England -35.5 ($1.90)
Value: England 41+/France 0-10 points ($2.50)