AFLW Tips – Round 6

Crows v Dockers – Friday 7.05pm, TIO DarwinDespite Erin Phillips missing most of the game, the Crows comfortably accounted for the Blues last round- giving CPR to their dying season. Coach Bec Goddard insisted her side didn’t need a miracle, and they simply needed to play good footy- and it is clear the players came out fired up and prepared to inflict some pain on a disappointing Blues outfit. Ruth Wallace was electric up forward, Ebony Marinoff was industrious in the midfield and skipper Chelsea Randall was everywhere her side needed her. The cohesion of last year looks to have returned for the Crows, which doesn’t bode well for a Dockers side that lacks depth and x-factor. It is hard to see how the Dockers can kick enough goals to win this game, with only Gabby O’Sullivan looking anything close to threatening up forward against the Giants, and given the Crows defence has only conceded 4 goals over the past two games it is feasible to imagine the Dockers don’t kick more than just a couple.
The Wolf is very keen on the Crows in this one, but the Dockers have only let one margin exceed 25 points- and that was 26 to ladder leaders, the Bulldogs. 3+ goals for Phillips at $3.75 looks juicy too, given the lack of key defensive prospects at Fremantle, and the fact her quad will limit her midfield minutes.
Best Bet: HT/FT Double- Adelaide/Adelaide ($1.80)
Other Bet: Adelaide 1-24 ($2.20)Prop Bet: Erin Phillips 3+ goals ($3.75)

Lions v Magpies – Saturday 4.35pm, BrisbaneThe Lions came within a whistle of drawing against the Demons last round, and certainly put up a good fight against a star-studded midfield that were accumulating possessions at will. While they never led at any stage, they did remarkably well to claw back a 16 point deficit that, at one stage, looked like being a blowout with Daisy Pearce on a rampage. Sabrina Frederick-Traub was enormous, with 3 goals to go along with her 15 disposals, while key defender Kate Lutkins proved, once again, why she is a lock for the All-Australian backline with an astonishing 26 disposals and 9 rebound 50’s. Lutkins and Leah Kasler leave the Lions perfectly positioned to counter what can be, at times, a potent Magpies forward line. Unfortunately for those talented forwards, the midfield cannot get them enough ball, and that midfield has now been robbed of its prime mover- with skipper Steph Chiocci scrubbed out for 3 matches for a dirty hit on Libby Birch. They may get a quick start, but the stingy Lions defence should peg them back pretty quick.
The home side definitely looks like getting the win, but the quote is a touch short for the Wolf’s liking. Stick to the margin betting, which looks a safe play.
Best Bet: Brisbane 1-24 ($2.20)
Value Bet: HT/FT Double – COLLINGWOOD/BRISBANE ($6.00)
Prop Bet: Jess Wuetschner 2+ Goals ($1.70)
Giants v Bulldogs – Saturday 7.10pm, CanberraThis clash is massive for the Giants, who kept their faint finals hopes alive with an impressive display over in the West last round. While it is quite a complicated set of circumstances that are required for the Giants to reach the final, the fact of the matter is that they just need to keep winning. Unfortunately for them, they are up against the ladder leaders, who have kicked 135 points over the past two games. The un-heralded Giants defence will present a much better challenge though, with players like Tanya Hetherington, Nicola Barr, Emma Swanson and Phoebe Monahan flying under the radar of many fans and providing both backbone and silky rebounding. How they contain the revolving door of Dogs forwards will go a long way towards winning the game, because they are very well matched up through the midfield- with Ellie Blackburn, Emma Kearney and Kirsty Lamb facing off against Alicia Eva, Courtney Gum and Jess Dal Pos.
The Wolf has a special feeling about the Giants for this one. They are really starting to generate some momentum, and have some very good players in very good form. Pretty confident this will be a very close game- wouldn’t rule out a cheeky draw ($26) either!
Best Bet: Triple Margin 15.5- ANY OTHER RESULT ($1.65)
Value Bet: GWS WIN ($2.35)

Blues v Demons – Sunday 4.35pm, Ikon ParkThings just keep getting worse for the poor Blues this season. The Wolf warned in the preseason that the supposed flag fancies had some serious shortcomings despite their two big recruits- but the level of their capitulation to the Crows last round was very concerning; and they come up against an even better side here. 2 goals from 27 inside 50s is, quite frankly, embarrassing, and once again the lack of a genuine A-grade midfielder reared its ugly head. The Melbourne ‘Big 3’ of Paxman, Pearce and O’Dea shared 72 disposals, 21 tackles, 12 inside 50s and 12 clearances against the Lions- but what puts that in perspective is comparing it to the top 3 Carlton midfielders (of last round)- Katie Loynes, Sarah Hosking and Maddison Gay. Those three players could only muster 32 touches, 19 tackles and 5 clearances in perfect conditions against the Crows and it is scary thinking how far apart they (and the other depth midfielders) are.
The Wolf wants to go chips in on the Demons in this game- there is so much to play for here, and the best sides stand up when it counts.
Best Bet: Melbourne -10.5 ($1.90)
Value Bet: Melbourne 25+ ($3.60)
Prop Bet: Daisy Pearce 20+ disposals