Arsenal v Burnley: Clarets can dampen Wenger goodbye

Arsenal v Burnley
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Bye Wenger

So here we are. Arsene Wenger's final home game in charge.

Does the script say he gets the send-off befitting of a man who has guided Arsenal to three Premier League titles and seven FA Cups?

Or does Sunday's farewell show everyone exactly why it's time to move on?

The idea of waving goodbye with a final piece of silverware went up in smoke in Spain on Thursday night as Arsenal crashed out of the Europa Cup semis to Atletico Madrid.

There will be a new manager at the Emirates next season but, once again, no Champions League football.

Burnley still sniffing top six

If Arsenal were hosting a side already 'on the beach', a convincing home win could easily play out.

However, Burnley are not that side and never will be.

Victory here would put Sean Dyche's men level on points with Arsenal and although the Gunners have two games left while Burnley have just one, Wenger's side finish with two away matches and, as we know, they haven't bagged a single point on the road in 2018.

Burnley have actually won more points (28) on the road than at home and will feel that they're due a break against Arsenal having lost their last two meetings to controversial 98th-minute penalties. At least the man who put them away, Alexis Sanchez, won't be in opposition on Sunday.

Gunners luck may run out

Go back a match further and Arsenal also won last season's game at Burnley with a 90th-minute goal. It means the Gunners have won the last five meetings by a single goal - three 1-0s and two 2-1s.

In other words, Burnley always make it tough and one of these days the Clarets are going to get something.

Arsenal are 1.59 to give Wenger a final home win, while Burnley are 6.60 to spoil the day. The Draw is 4.30.

It's that latter result I like. Burnley have lost just four times on the road this season which is a superb achievement and a huge tribute to Dyche's organisation.

They've managed seven stalemates and I'll take them to bank an eighth.

Could they snatch the win? One thing that Burnley don't seem to have in their locker yet is an away win against a big team so I'm happy to limit their party-pooper levels to taking one point rather than three.

Late drama could unfold

The romantics want an Arsenal win but there is actually a little bit of logic if you want to invest in the idea of the hosts giving Wenger a final adrenaline burst.

The history of this fixture certainly backs up the idea of a late Arsenal winner but so do the stats when breaking down how this pair score their goals.

In away games, Burnley have let in fewer first-half goals (five) than any other side.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have scored the second most home second-half goals (28) in the top flight.

Put that together and there's a scenario where Burnley lead at the break before Wenger rallies the troops for a final hurrah and they storm back to win after the break.

Many will doubt if this set of Arsenal players can be motivated in such a way but I'm willing to have a small punt on the Burnley/Arsenal HT/FT double result at 28.00.

Ref watch

Andre Marriner probably wouldn't have been Wenger's choice on such an occasion.

The West Midlands official sent off Mohamed Elneny on his last visit and in the four Arsenal matches he's taken charge of this season, the Gunners have lost three.

Overall, Marriner has flashed 91 yellows and three reds in his 33 games this season. He was last seen not giving Liverpool a late penalty against Stoke at Anfield.

Opta stat

This will be Arsene Wenger's 606th and final home match in charge of Arsenal. His first was a 0-0 draw against Coventry on October 19th 1996. Current Burnley manager Sean Dyche played in a 1-0 win for Chesterfield against Crewe in a third-tier league match that day.

RECOMMENDED BETS

2pts Draw at 4.30

1pt Burnley/Arsenal HT/FT double result at 28.00