Huddersfield 3.50 v Bournemouth 2.40; The Draw 3.40
This is definitely the first, and undoubtedly the only time, that I back a team that didn't record a single shot of any note in their previous game. In fact against Man City last week Bournemouth barely got a kick of the ball, failed to even win a corner, and showed no attacking intent whatsoever.
Eddie Howe's tactics against City last week went completely against the grain. I actually wrote in my preview that regularly lining up 4-4-2 and playing attacking football is a credit to Howe and his Bournemouth side, but perhaps against the big boy he needs to be a bit more disciplined. It was Sod's law then that Howe 'took my advice' against City when I'd backed the away side to score at least four goals.
You can guarantee that we'll see the Cherries back playing their usual style against Huddersfield on Saturday afternoon and the bottom line is that they're a much better sidethan the Terriers and should pick up all three points.
I fancied Huddersfield to give Brighton a good game last weekend and avoid defeat, and they very nearly did so, losing by just a single goal, but as soon as Jan Siewert's men went behind I never had any confidence that they'd get back in it. The Terriers play some neat football but are devoid of ideas in the final third.
A return of just 15 goals in 29 games tells you exactly why Huddersfield are rock bottom of the Premier League and even though both themselves and Bournemouth have been in poor form of late the belief is that just a single goal for the away side on Saturday will probably be good enough to take all three points. If the Cherries score more than once then we really should be collecting.
Rodgers to win battle of the new bosses
Leicester 1.63 v Fulham 6.00; The Draw 4.50
Leicester recorded a victory in their very first game after sacking Claude Puel, and although Brendan Rodgers failed to do likewise in his first game in charge last Sunday his team's performance offered plenty of encouragement.
The obvious plus point for me was Jamie Vardy's goal. It had all the hallmarks of how the Foxes played during their incredible title-winning season. Rodgers played with three central defenders and invited pressure, and Leicester's goal came when they stole possession and provided a fantastic through ball for Vardy to run onto and slot home.
Youri Tielemans was the man passing long to Vardy, very much in the same way Danny Drinkwater - remember him? - regularly did a few seasons back, and I can see Leicester improving dramatically in the final months of this campaign if Rodgers plays a similar system.
I certainly fancy the Foxes to be too good for Fulham on Saturday in what is a battle of the new bosses. Scott Parker has taken temporary charge of the Cottagers and although they only went down narrowly at home to Chelsea last week I wasn't as convinced as many that they put in an improved performance. The fact is, but for some wasteful finishing by Chelsea, Fulham could have lost by three or four.
The Cottagers have conceded an alarming 65 league goals this term, by some distance the worst in the division, and they've lost nine of their last 10 outings. Their last three away games all ended in defeat by a margin of at least two goals, and a price of 2.80 about Leicester covering the -1 goal handicap makes plenty of appeal.
Kane to score in a Spurs win
Southampton 4.50 v Tottenham 1.90; The Draw 3.90
This is a tricky match to call in the fact that Southampton have looked as though they have a bit of fight in them as they strive to fight off relegation, while Tottenham haven't exactly been in great form of late.
But I can't get away from a Spurs victory. We're talking about a side that was very much in the title race just a fortnight ago and a team that has qualified to play in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, against a team currently in huge danger of being relegated.
It's perhaps not too much of an exaggeration to suggest that a couple of weeks ago Tottenham would have been trading at around the 1.70 mark to win this game.
So I think [1.90] is a very fair price, especially given Tottenham's terrific record against teams in the bottom half of the table. They've won every such game this term bar one, though that one defeat was the game that sparked Spurs' current inconsistent run, the recent 2-1 defeat to Burnley.
Recency bias is also a big factor here. It's easy to give the Saints a chance of their terrific showing at Old Trafford last weekend, but we shouldn't forget how poor this team are. Ralph Hasenhuttl's men have won just one of their last six league games - that coming against hapless Fulham - and they've been one of the worst home teams in the Premier League for the best part of three seasons now.
So I'm quite confident about an away win here, and I really should be happy with the 1.90about that option. But I'm not. I really want to enhance the away win price and I will do so by backing Harry Kane to get on the scoresheet.
Arguably the best striker in the world, Kane has scored in three of his four starts since returning from injury, he's scored five goals in his last three appearances against Southampton, and he's scored in three successive trips to the St Mary's Stadium.
Back Bournemouth to Win @ 2.40 v Huddersfield (best bet)
Back Leicester -1 to Win @ 2.80 v Fulham
Back Tottenham to Win & Kane to Score @ 2.8 (SGM) v Southampton