Serie A Betting: Back goals at Inter and Samp to shock Roma

Top four battle at San Siro

Inter v Atalanta
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

I was shocked by the way that Inter bounced back to form against Genoa in midweek, and with off field issues potentially behind them, they could be set for a strong finish to the season.

They were my pre-season tip to be the team that finished the season closest to Juventus, and but for the badly managed nonsense surrounding the behaviour of Mauro Icardi, they'd be a lot closer to Napoli in second place than the current seven-point gap.

A happy Inter normally means plenty of goals, and I can see them and Atalanta serving up a real spectacle at San Siro on Sunday afternoon. We know all about Atalanta's ability to exploit space and score goals, and also about the added motivation that ex-Inter boss Gian Piero Gasperini always feels for this fixture, and that gives them a realistic prospect of pulling off a surprise at around 3.20.

For all Atalanta's qualities, though, I still favour Inter, who look to have players back in form at the right time and may have produced a truly pivotal win at Marassi on Wednesday. Atalanta were brilliant in blowing away Bologna on Thursday, which adds to the sense that there'll be goals. That's true even with Capocannoniere contender Duvan Zapata suspended, as Musa Barrow has pace and Papu Gomez could even go into a more advanced role.

Inter are tempting at 2.30, but I think it will be a wide-open game, and so favour a bet on Over 3.5 Goals, at around 3.20.

Milan can surprise Juve

Juventus v Milan
Saturday, 17:00
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

Now that Juventus lead the Serie A table by 18 points, and know that their eighth consecutive Scudetto is only weeks away, they can focus fully on Champions League matters, with their quarter-final job starting next week against Ajax.

Juve have had big injury concerns, did well to win at Cagliari with a host of players out, and surely Max Allegri won't be rushing his big men back, even though Milan provide the opposition on Saturday night.

With what's likely to be a skeleton Juve team, and one that could be forgiven for its focus being elsewhere, Milan have to be a bet with a goal start in Turin. I'm actually surprised to see them as big as 5.50 to win the game, but given that Gennaro Gattuso's team haven't won in three, I suppose there's a reason for that lack of faith in the Rossoneri. That and the absence of injured Gianluigi Donnarumma and Lucas Paqueta, although Pepe Reina brings experience in goal.

Milan, though, are good enough to take advantage of a Juve team whose minds will be elsewhere, and with Krzysztof Piatek back on the goalscoring train against Udinese last time, there's even more reason for confidence. I think that they're a bet at odds against with a goal start.

Samp underestimated

Sampdoria v Roma
Saturday, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Sampdoria's defeat by Torino in midweek was a setback, but Marco Giampaolo's team still know the value of a strong finish to the season, and I expect them to continue their strong run of home form with a win against a Roma side who still look a long way short of their best.

Samp have won two of their last three at Marassi, and were impressive against Milan last week, while Roma continue to limp to the end of the season, with Claudio Ranieri's reignunlikely to stretch any further than that.

After losing to SPAL, Roma capitulated at home against Napoli, and then were fortunate to draw at the Olimpico against Fiorentina in midweek. There doesn't seem to be much cohesion in their play, and the defensive issues which have blighted them for this entire season are still very much there. Samp look a big price at 2.90 to beat them.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Over 3.5 Goals in Inter v Atalanta @ 2.80 

Back Milan +1 on Asian Handicap against Juventus @ 2.20 

Back Sampdoria to beat Roma @ 2.90