Serie A Betting: Toro a big price to take down shot-shy Genoa

Granata too much for Genoa

Genoa v Torino
Saturday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

It's hard to describe just how bad Genoa were in last week's Derby Della Lanterna, and should both Bologna and Empoli win this weekend, they are in danger of being pulled right into the relegation battle.

Since Krzysztof Piatek left for Milan in January, Genoa have been woefully short of goals, and that was writ large last week as they laboured and struggled to create, and looked short of both form and inspiration.

Put simply, Genoa have failed to score in six of their last eight games, and only in the second half of that astonishing win against Juventus did they look a consistent threat. They don't seem to have the options to change that trend, and with Goran Pandev suspendedthis weekend, they've lost one of their cleverest forward players.

Torino have started to draw games at the wrong time: three of the last four just as a Top Four finish seemed within reach, but that doesn't turn them into a bad team, and with a chance of Europe still there, they look a big price to go to Marassi and win, as Walter Mazzarri will have them fired up and primed to put things right.

They've lost only once away from home all season, and while they draw far too many games, I think they look a very useful price to win this one.

Sinisa to sink Samp

Bologna v Sampdoria
Saturday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bologna did the business for us last week by holding Fiorentina to a goalless draw, and in a relegation battle that is turning into an apparent fight to the death between Bologna and Empoli, I think that both teams will pick up three points, and maybe drag another side right into the picture.

I've said so much about Bologna's revival that I don't want to repeat myself, but they look a changed team under Sinisa Mihajlovic and have now won their last three home games. In fact, over the course of the last six Serie A rounds, they have picked up more points than anyone.

Sampdoria were as good as they needed to be to win the Derby against Genoa last week, and they are still in with a chance of European football next season, but they have proved inconsistent in recent weeks, and never look the most physically fit team to me. That weakness will be tested to the limit against all action Bologna and I think that the home team rate a good 2.30 shot to further their chances of survival.

This will be a bittersweet occasion for Mihajlovic, who spent four years at Samp in the mid '90s and coached them too, but there'll be no sentiment as he looks to keep Bologna's charge going. His team are now nine unbeaten against Samp in Serie A, and I think they'll extend that run to ten with victory here.

Empoli keep climbing

Empoli v SPAL
Saturday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Empoli showed astonishing resilience to come away from Bergamo on Monday with a point against Atalanta. The fact that they faced a record 47 shots in the game has been well documented, and while that statistic highlights their weakness, it also shows immense character, and that will serve them well for the rest of the season.

Empoli host a SPAL side fresh from their win against Juventus last weekend, and I like the chances of the home team here. They've won three of their last four home games, including that big victory against Napoli, and the Atalanta match shows just how hard they are prepared to battle. Only Juventus have a longer current unbeaten run at home than Empoli, and that tells us a lot.

The gap to Bologna is two points, but Aurelio Andreazzoli knows that his team head for the Dall'Ara next weekend, and that they must stay in range of their big relegation rivals before that. And if Empoli can keep picking up points, then Bologna won't be their only target.

SPAL have proved to be good enough to stay up, and I've been impressed by the way that they have dramatically found form. They've won four of their last five, but the one defeat on that run was away at Cagliari, a similar test to this, and after the euphoria of last week, they may well come back down to earth.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Torino to beat Genoa @ 2.96

Back Bologna to beat Sampdoria @ 2.30 

Back Empoli to beat SPAL @ 2.18