Watford v Southampton: Let them entertain you

Watford v Southampton
Tuesday, 19:45

If the looming FA Cup final is on Watford minds, it hasn't really shown in the past couple of weeks.

They were beaten last time out at home by Arsenal but only 1-0 after playing for 79 minutes with 10 men following Troy Deeney's red card - he remains suspended for this one, so Gerard Deulofeu (four goals in his last two games) will remain the focal point of the Hornets' attack.

They returned to winning ways at the weekend by defeating Huddersfield 2-1 in West Yorkshire.

Admittedly stronger opposition awaits here, and Southampton are also a team still requiring points as they bid to finally fight off the threat of relegation.

Watford, however, have loftier targets. They know a draw here will see them return to seventh in the table - a position which would guarantee them Europa League football next season should they finish in it.

To achieve that would be a fine achievement for Javier Gracia's men, for whom Roberto Pereyra remains a doubt with a hip injury.

They've been pretty ruthless at Vicarage Road against the lower-ranked sides - they have won six and drawn two of their nine home games against the sides currently below them.

Away-day blues

Southampton clearly fit into that bracket, although the issue anyone has judging them on season-long stats is that they have improved markedly since the awful Mark Hughes era ended and Ralph Hasenhuttl arrived.

They've actually won four of their last seven, although three of those victories came at home. Problems remain on the road, certainly in terms of getting results.

Despite Hasenhuttl improving the side, Southampton's record away to the teams who currently occupy the top half of the table is won 1, drawn 1, lost 7.

They've conceded at least twice in nine of their 17 away games so I'm not too concerned about the fact that they recently won 1-0 at Brighton - arguably the league's worst side on current form.

A greater reference point would be Saturday's 3-1 defeat at Newcastle, a game the Austrian boss would surely have been targeting for points given it was against another side in the bottom half.

No great value

The Saints' team news sees midfielder Mario Lemina pushing for his first start of 2019 following injury (he was a sub at the weekend), while defender Jannick Vestergaardmissed that game and remains a doubt.

I'm not seeing a great deal of value in the match odds, where Watford are 2.28 for victory with the visitors trading at 3.45.

At time of writing, the draw was at 3.55.

Goals on the cards

I much prefer looking into the goal markets where both teams to score looks pretty likely.

Both sides have seen this happen in five of their last six matches.

Despite the lack of a real goalscorer, Southampton have only failed to score once in their last 13 in the league (v Arsenal). The stats are less strong when it comes to Watford but they still been pretty reliable scorers at home and here we have two teams really in need of a result, so attacking football should be on display.

Sadly BTTS is only offered at 13/20 so it's to the over 2.5 goals line I turn in search of profit.

The stats are again strong here with Watford having at least three goals in seven of their last eight games. For Southampton, it's five of the last six.

Across the season as a whole, 69% of Watford's home games meet the criteria and 53% of Southampton's.

Such figures suggest that there's value to be had in taking the 1.92, particularly given the need for a result is strong for both teams.

Gerry can

Another tempting bet is for Deulofeu to continue his impressive scoring run. After back-to-back braces against Wolves and Huddersfield, he now has eight goals in his last nine games.

He appeared to relish being the main man up front for Watford at the weekend and 21/10about him scoring at any time is worth consideration.

I've written here before about how Deulofeu is a player who goes through purple patches and he's clearly in one right now. Pacy with good dribbling skills, the Spaniard is a handful for any defender on his day and Southampton's back-line isn't one which he'll fear facing.

For those seeking something bigger, 12/1 about Deulofeu hitting another brace (or more) is available.

Same Game Multi

Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals and Deulofeu to score one of the goals is a 4.81shot. Given my views on what's likely to happen, that looks fair enough.

If you want to boost the price, wait for the 'to be carded' market to appear.

The league's strictest ref, Mike Dean, has the whistle and these are two teams who pick up plenty of cards.

The midfield area should be particularly competitive so Etienne Capoue (carded 12 times in 30 league games) and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (9 in 27) look prime candidates to see yellow.

RECOMMENDED BETS

1.25pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.92

0.75pt Gerard Deulofeu to score at any time @ 21/10 (Sportsbook)