The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 22
The Betting Battle returns after the break for the FA Cup with Dan continuing to lead, and the other editors not far behind. Here's where their tenners are headed...
Eagles can hold resurgent Gunners
Dan Thomas Back the Draw in Crystal Palace v Arsenal at4.00 Saturday, 12:30 Live on BT Sport 1
Dan is away
Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£57.60
Expect entertainment at Molineux
Back BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals in Wolves vs Newcastle @2.78 (Same Game Multi) Saturday, 15:00
Wolves come into this game having lost their last two games to the champions elect, and then a rejuvenated Watford, though they were unfortunate to lose to the Hornets, and they had Liverpool rattled at Anfield, suggesting another win is around the corner.
They sit fourth in Infogol's xG table at this point of the season, a place higher than they finished in last season's xG table, so they are showing no signs of slowing down, and have to fancy their chances of causing an upset in the Top Six betting market - as I discussed with the gang on Football... Only Bettor this week.
Nuno's side aren't only excellent to watch, but they are extremely effective also, creating plenty of good chances on a regular basis (1.67 xGF per game), though they are far from solid (1.37 xGA per game), shown by the fact that they have kept only four clean sheets in the Premier League this term.
Newcastle had a bad Christmas period, as they were comfortably beaten in all three matches, conceding a host of chances in the process (8.42 xGA), something they have been doing all season long, despite their 'against' suggesting they haven't been too bad (33 goals conceded, 41.6 xGA).
They are allowing an average of 1.98 xGA per game and rank as the worst team in the league on expected goals, so it is hard to make a case for them to get something from this game, but what they do manage to do more often than not is score (netted in 14 of 21 league games).
Both Over 2.5 Goals and Both teams to score are priced up at odds-against, and the Infogol model makes them both odds-on shots, so combining the two in a Same Game Multi and getting a price of 2.78 about a game in which we expect plenty of entertainment looks like good value to me.
Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: +£31.70
Liverpool and overs a decent double
Joe Dyer Back Liverpool/Over 2.5 Goals double v Spurs @2.38
Joe is away.
Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: +£23.90
Moyes' boys bounce can get a result in Sheffield
Jasmine Baba Back the draw in Sheff Utd v West Ham @ 3.60 Friday, 20:00 Live on Sky Sports
The Premier League returns on Friday night and we have a clash between a team that has been surpassing everyone's expectations and another which is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum.
The latter side, West Ham, have something that you might not want to back against though. A new manager bounce.
David Moyes made a statement with his first game of his second stint at the East London club, winning 4-0 against Bournemouth. The Cherries are in a state of turmoil at the moment, so shouldn't be looked too deeply but the Hammers' players needed a boost of confidence in a result like that to get them going.
This time round they face Chris Wilder's very strong Sheffield United side which have had two defeats on the bounce; away to defending champions Manchester City and league leaders Liverpool. It's quite understandble to lose to those to teams and Wilder will be itching for a win here but with West Ham only two points away from the relegation zone, will make it very tight for them.
In terms of history between these two, there's not much to go by. In the reverse of this fixture earlier in the season the two sides drew but the most interesting thing is how inconsistent the Blades can be at home. Their record sees them winning four, losing four and drawing two. So I think the two sides will cancel each other out and will be backing the draw at 3.65.
Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: +£3.00
Canaries to get on the scoresheet at Old Trafford
Mike Norman Back Norwich Over 1.5 Goals @ 3/1 v Manchester United Saturday, 15:00
Manchester United haven't kept a home clean sheet in the Premier League since September, and they go into this must-win game against Norwich in poor form having lost to Watford and Arsenal over the Christmas period, drew with Wolves in the FA Cup in a game where they failed to register a single shot on target, and conceded three at home to Man City in the EFL Cup in midweek.
I say 'must-win' game because I feel the pressure is really increasing on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and a home game against rock-bottom Norwich will be seen as one his team surely have to win.
But I doubt it will be that straightforward. United may well outscore the Canaries on Saturday but they're struggling to keep clean sheets at Old Trafford and will be without key defender Harry Maguire for this clash.
Consider also that Norwich have scored at least once in nine of their last 10 outings including four away from home to Preston in the cup last weekend and two goals each against north London sides Arsenal and Spurs recently.
Until they get a few wins on the board and bridge the gap to the teams above them Norwich literally having nothing to lose; they may as well go on the attack and go for goals, just like they have all season. For that reason I think they'll give United a tough time on Saturday and I really wouldn't be surprised to see them get on the scoresheet a few times.