Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back Goals in Verona
After landing two winners last weekend, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a 26/1 fourfold...
Hoffenheim to register another win
Freiburg vs Hoffenheim Saturday, 14:30 GMT
Freiburg took an absolute hammering at the hands of FC Koln last weekend, a 4-0 thrashing in which their defence was pretty much non-existent (xG: KOL 4.06 - 0.51 FRE).
After a great start to the Bundsliga campaign, Freiburg have struggled of late, winning just one of their last six league games which has seen them drop to eighth, though they are fortunate to sit that high.
Based on expected goals, they have the second-worst underlying process in the league (1.46 xGF, 2.25 xGA per game), conceding a host of chances on a regular basis.
Hoffenheim are firmly in the race for European football after a run of four wins in five, their latest victory coming against Bayer Leverkusen in what was a highly entertaining clash.
They are a team that are very attack-minded, and have improved as the season has progressed, averaging 1.92 xGF per game in their last 12, so shouldn't have a problem opening Freiburg up.
Infogol thinks the visitors are just the better of the two teams, calculating a 56% (1.79) chance of an away win, meaning the 2.74 (37%) on offer represents a huge amount of value.
Getafe to edge out Valencia
Getafe vs Valencia Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Getafe have flown up the La Liga table after a sluggish start, winning 10 of their last 15 La Liga games, including a very impressive 2-0 win over Athletic Bilbao last weekend (xG: BIL 1.00 - 2.18 GET) that saw them move up to third.
They are higher in the table than they should be though according to expected goals, with a lot of that down to the fact that they have won games that were tight according to xG, so have had positive variance this season.
José Bordalás' side are extremely difficult to play against, and boast one of the leagues best defences (1.21 xGA per game), which will make life extremely difficult for Valencia here.
Valencia have won three of their last four league games heading into this match, meaning they sit fifth and just two points behind Getafe, but all three of their wins have come at home, and their only away game in that stretch was a thumping 4-1 defeat at Mallorca (xG: MAL 1.93 - 0.43 VAL).
They too are very fortunate to sit so high in the table, ranking as only the 12th best team on xG, but unlike Getafe, their underlying process is actually negative (1.50 xGF, 1.74 xGA per game).
Defensively they are vulnerable, and I think Getafe will have enough to get another win in this game, with the model calculating a 55% (1.82) chance of a home win, meaning the 2.12 (47%) on offer is the value play.
In-form Metz to continue to ascend
Metz vs Bordeaux Saturday, 19:00 GMT
Metz are one of France's form teams at the moment, with a 1-1 draw at Montpellier in midweek extending their unbeaten run in the league to six matches.
Their underlying numbers this season aren't great, but they aren't bad either, with few goals and chances the norm in their matches (1.02xGF, 1.25 xGA per game last six). Stade Saint-Symphorien has been a fortress for them this season, losing only three of their 11 home games, and they have won their last two against Strasbourg and St Etienne, so the home advantage could be key here.
Bordeaux have won just one of their last seven matches in Ligue 1, meaning they have slipped to 12th in the table, though they are fortunate to sit so high, ranking as the fourth worst team in the league on xG.
They don't create many chances on a game by game basis (0.93 xGF per game), and that is likely to be a huge issue in this match, and moving forward through the rest of the season.
Infogol calculates a 41% (2.44) chance that Metz get the win, meaning the 2.68 (37%) on offer represent a small amount of value.
Verona to test league leaders
Verona vs Juventus Saturday, 19:45 GMT
Verona caused two upsets over the last week after picking draws from two away trips at AC Milan and high-flying Lazio, extending their unbeaten Serie A run to seven.
That run means they sit ninth in the table, and that is exactly where they deserve to be according to expected goals, as their process this season has been above average.
They are creating chances in every match (1.45 xGF per game), while also conceding plenty (1.49 xGA per game), which usually means they are involved in entertaining clashes.
Juventus have a three-point lead at the top of Serie A, and extended their fantastic run to six wins in seven matches with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Fiorentina last weekend (xG: JUV 2.75 - 0.90 FIO).
There are signs that Maurizio Sarri's side are hitting top gear after a sluggish start, but they still sit down in sixth in Infogol's xG table, with their defensive process the reason for that.
They have allowed an average of 1.28 xGA per game this season, a big increase on the 0.96 xGA per game they allowed last season, so this Juve team is gettable.
The issue you have when playing the Old Lady, is trying to contain their attacking quality, and mainly Cristiano Ronaldo, who has scored in nine straight Serie A matches, bagging 14 in that time.
He will take some stopping here, and Infogol thinks we will see a goal laden game, calculating a 60% (1.67) chance of over 2.5 goals, meaning the 1.98 (51%) on offer is a clear value play.