Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every game of GW29
After landing a 21.00 winner in midweek, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back to predict the score of every Bundesliga match of GW29, using expected goals (xG) data to find the betting value...
Bayer Leverkusen to bounce back
Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen Friday, 19:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Freiburg were one of the more fortunate teams during the midweek round of fixtures, as they managed a 3-3 draw at Frankfurt despite heavily losing the xG battle (xG: FRA 4.4 - 0.8 FRE). That game sums up their season, as they have ridden their luck defensively throughout 19/20 (40 conceded, 58.6 xGA - 2.09 per game). Bayer were surprisingly bad in midweek against Wolfsburg, losing 4-1 at home. They were the inferior team, but is a long time since that happened, so it will be interesting to see if that performance was a one-off. Averaging 1.9 xGF per game, B04 should have no issues creating here, and are taken to win (59%) in a high-scoring Friday clash (52% O3.5, 68% BTTS) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 14.00
Labbadia to get another win
Hertha Berlin v Augsburg Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Hertha have arguably been the most impressive team since the Bundesliga returned, picking up seven points from some tricky games, and being the better team at RB Leipzig in midweek. Since the break and the appointment of manager Bruno Labbadia, Hertha have generated an average of 1.9 xGF per game, so have found a formula that works. Augsburg were poor against basement side Paderborn in midweek, losing the xG battle, but away from home their process is worryingly poor, allowing 2.1 xGA per game. Hertha should prove too strong (52%) in an entertaining game (61% O2.5, 61% BTTS) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @17.50
Hoffenheim to heap misery on Mainz
Mainz v Hoffenheim Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Mainz are winless since the break, and are nervously looking over their shoulder after Fortuna have picked up good results. Their performance last weekend at home to RB Leipzig was horrendous, but not surprising given they have allowed 2.0 xGA per game this season. Hoffenheim got a much-needed win against FC Koln in midweek, and all-in-all their performances since the restart have been good, and they have been creating good chances. The model makes Hoffenheim 43% favourites to win here in a goal-laden game (57% O3.5, 75% BTTS) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @20.00
Schalke to ease pressure on Wagner
Schalke v Werder Bremen Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
It has been a really bad few months for Schalke, as they head into this game winless in 10 Bundesliga matches. Process wise, they have been atrocious in that time, averaging just 0.8 xGF per game - only this weekend's opponents Werder have averaged less. Bremen though are in better form heading into this game, following up a win at Freiburg with a draw with Gladbach in midweek. They too are seriously struggling in attack, so we could be in for a dull game. Schalke are given a 45% chance of winning by the model, and are taken to prevail in a narrow win with few goals (57% U2.5, 48% BTTS) - 1-0.
Back the 1-0 @10.00
Wolves to build on impressive midweek
Wolfsburg v Frankfurt Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Wolfsburg picked up a hugely surprising yet thoroughly deserved win away at Bayer Leverkusen in midweek, racking up 3.0 xGF in that game and putting a bit more daylight between themselves in sixth and their challengers. Frankfurt were hugely unfortunate to come away with only a point against Freiburg, and that was a performance in the right direction after a torrid run. They are so open and attacking in their style that we expect Wolfsburg to just pick them off and get the win (49%). As with all of Frankfurt's games since the restart, goals should be on the cards (62% O2.5, 63% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @9.80
Thumping win for Bayern
Bayern Munich v Fortuna Dusseldorf Saturday, 17:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Bayern Munich's win against Dortmund put them seven points clear at the top of the table, and extended their winning streak to seven. They look unstoppable now, and at home this season their process is exceptional (3.0 xGF, 1.0 xGA per game). Fortuna are on a six-game unbeaten run themselves, and after a win against Schalke in midweek are just a point from safety. Performances haven't exactly reflected results throughout this run though, and away from home this season they have been leaky (2.1 xGA per game). Bayern are to win here (91%), and the model thinks they could dish out a hiding, making over 4.5 goals an odds on (55%) chance. Fortuna should get a consolation (52% BTTS) - 4-1.
Back the 4-1 @10.00
Union's struggles to continue
Borussia Monchengladbach v Union Berlin Sunday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Borussia Monchengladbach were beaten by Bayer Leverkusen last weekend, and were second best to Werder Bremen in midweek, not the best five days of their season. They will be happy to be back at home (2.4 xGF, 1.6 xGA per game) and to be playing such an out of form opponent. Union are winless in five after a 1-1 draw with fellow strugglers Mainz in midweek. Their last away trip to city rivals Hertha Berlin was a shocking display, and if they play at the same level here, they will suffer the same fate. Their away process is poor (1.2 xGF, 1.9 xGA per game), so Gladbach should get back to winning ways here (67%), with goals on the menu (67% O2.5, 67% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @9.00
Cagey away win for BVB
Paderborn v Borussia Dortmund Sunday, 17:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Paderborn are unbeaten since the restart, drawing all three of their games, though they have fallen further behind their rivals. In those three games, Paderborn have been below their season average in attack (1.0 xGF per game), but have performed much better defensively than their season average (1.2 xGA per game). Perhaps they are taking a more conservative approach? Dortmund saw their already slim title hopes get even slimmer in Der Klassiker, losing 1-0 to Bayern. While they have scored six times since the restart, they have created chances equating to just 2.8 xGF, so have been extremely clinical with limited chances - 0.9 xGF per game. They have improved defensively though (0.6 xGA per game). Dortmund should get the win here (56%), but the model is finding huge value in opposing goals, giving a 46% chance of under 2.5 (market at 34%) - 0-2.
Back the 0-2 @9.40
RBL to win Monday night thriller
FC Koln v RB Leipzig Monday, 19:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
FC Koln left it too late against Hoffenheim in midweek, going 3-0 down before creating good chances. That was the case at the weekend too against Fortuna, though that time they did manage to salvage a point from 2-0 down. They create good chances, but it appears as though it takes them some time to get going. RB Leipzig were second best to Hertha in midweek, a surprising turn of events for a team that had just put up 4.7 xGF in a 5-0 away win. Their process away from home (2.5 xGF, 1.0 xGA per game) is actually better than at home (2.4 xGF, 1.4 xGA per game), so they clearly enjoy their travels, and we think they will again here (56% RBL win). FC Koln are a strong attacking team so should get on the scoresheet (61% BTTS) - 1-3.