Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW31
Using expected goals (xG) data as his guide, Jake Osgathorpe looks for the likely winners and scorelines when the Bundesliga resumes this weekend
RBL to beat managerless Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim RB Leipzig Friday, 19:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Hoffenheim have had an interesting week already, as after a 2-2 draw at Fortuna, they parted ways with manager Alfred Schreuder. It may come as a surprise given they were just two points off sixth, but their underlying numbers have been shocking this season, being the third worst defensive team (1.96 xGA per game). RB Leipzig were again frustrated at home last weekend, but will be happy to be on their travels again. In two away games since the restart, RBL have generated 7.67 xGF, scoring nine times. Hoffenheim should be worried, and the model calculates a 60% chance of an away win, with goals highly-likely (55% O3.5, 70% BTTS) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @11.50
FCK to end six-match winless run
FC Koln vs Union Berlin Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
FC Koln were fortunate to get a point at Augsburg last weekend, but they are a different team at home. Their only defeat in the last 10 home games have come against Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig, while they have created 2.09 xGF per game in that time. Union were much better last weekend against Schalke, being unfortunate not to win. However, on the road they have been poor this season, and since the restart, allowing 1.91 xGA per away game this season. FC Koln are taken to win (52%), and as ever with FCK home games, we should see goals (60% O2.5, 60% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @9.80
Another game without a win for Fortuna
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Fortuna blew a great opportunity last weekend to make up some ground, but couldn't beat Hoffenheim, who played for 80 mins with 10-men. They are one of the worst attacking teams in the league (1.21 xGF per game), but defensively things are worst (2.12 xGA per game). They just aren't a great side. Dortmund were hugely efficient in their win over Hertha Berlin last weekend, with another stellar defensive performance to thank for the win (0.12 xGA). They aren't as potent on the road (1.59 xGF per game) as at home this season (2.13), but should be too strong for Fortuna nonetheless (62% BVB win), in an entertaining game (61% O2.5, 57% BTTS) 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @9.60
No respite for Eintracht
Hertha Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Hertha were disappointing at Dortmund last weekend, but BVB do boast the best defensive record in the Bundesliga according to xG, so we will cut them some slack. Since the restart they have, on the whole, been excellent, especially in their two home games (4.85 xGF). Frankfurt have been very harshly treated by the schedulers, with this being their fourth game in in 11 days after a DFB-Pokal semi final at Bayern Munich in midweek. If their performance against Mainz after a midweek win over Werder Bremen is anything to go by (xG: FRA 0.39 - 3.28 MAI), then they should struggle here. The model thinks Hertha will get the win (40%), but really likes the chances of goals in the capital (64% O2.5, 64% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @10.00
Paderborn to edge dull basement clash
Paderborn vs Werder Bremen Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Paderborn have been tough to beat since the restart, drawing four of their five games, including a 1-1 draw at RB Leipzig last weekend. Though draws aren't enough to save them they have tightened up defensively though. Werder Bremen continue to be shocking in terms of both actual and expected performances. This is a must-win for them, but in their last 10 league games they have averaged just 0.67 xGF per game. Not going to win too many games playing like that. Paderborn have impressed more than Werder since the break, so they get the nod here to notch a rare win (44% PAD), but don't expect fireworks against two of the worst attacking teams in the league (53% U2.5, 51% BTTS) - 1-0.
Back the 1-0 @14.50
First home win since restart for Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg vs Freiburg Saturday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Wolfsburg picked up a vital win last weekend in their quest to finish in sixth, rightly beating lowly Werder Bremen. Despite their home results suggesting otherwise, Wolfsburg are a strong home team (1.41 xGF, 1.09 xGA per game). Their attacking numbers have also improved since the restart (1.93 xGF per game), they are a side that is improving. Freiburg picked up a win at home to Borussia Monchengladbach last week, though they should have been a couple down by half time according to xG. They are the biggest over-performers of xG in the league, mainly defensively, with their goal living a charmed life this season (41 conceded, 61.3 xGA). Away from home they allow 2.33 xGA per game, so Wolfsburg should have no issues creating here. The hosts should win (71% WOL), with goals likely (65% O2.5, 54% BTTS) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @15.50
No Lewy, no Muller; no problem
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Monchengladbach Saturday, 17:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Bayern are just two wins from the title after a thumping 4-2 success away at Bayer Leverkusen last weekend, their 15th win in 16 league games. There is no sign of them relenting, and given that they have averaged 2.97 xGF per game since Hansi Flick's arrival, every Bundesliga team should be scared. That applies in this game, even though they are without Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller. They should still have enough to win this handsomely. This is a big game for Gladbach, as they sit fourth on goal difference only, with Leverkusen to play struggling Schalke on Sunday. Alassane Plea is missing here, as is Breel Embolo, so their options in attack are limited too. Fortunately for the Foals, they have only failed to generate at least 2.0 xGF twice in their last 10 games, so their attacking process is strong, even if defensively they are vulnerable (1.45 xGA per game last 10). Bayern should win here (71%), with another thrilling game in store (62% O3.5, 69% BTTS) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @11.00
Mainz to get a huge win in their survival hunt
Mainz vs Augsburg Sunday, 14:30 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Mainz were one of the more impressive winners last weekend in the Bundesliga, thrashing Frankfurt away from home in what was the perfect performance (xG: FRA 0.39 - 3.28 MAI). They had struggled prior to that game, but their performance was a huge step in the right direction for a team that have no issue creating chances (1.50 xGF per game). Augsburg were unfortunate not to beat FC Koln last weekend in what was a rare game in which they created over 2.0 xGF. On the road though, they are an extremely vulnerable team, allowing 2.1 xGA per away game. Mainz are fancied to make it back-to-back wins (50%), with goals extremely likely in this one (68% O2.5, 67% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @9.60
Yet another defeat for Wagner's Schalke
Schalke vs Bayer Leverkusen Sunday, 17:00 Watch on Betfair Live Video
Schalke picked up their first point since the restart at Union Berlin last weekend, but were hugely flattered to do so, creating next to nothing while allowing a host of big chances (xG: UNI 2.63 - 0.15 SCH). They have averaged just 0.63 xGF per game since the break, a pathetic return. Bayer Leverkusen's performances have deteriorated since a fast start post-break, with displays against all of Wolfsburg, Freiburg and Bayern Munich disappointing for varying reasons. Bayer have a negative process when playing away from home (1.55 xGF, 1.78 xGA per away game), which may come as a surprise given they have one of the best away records in the league. That shouldn't hamper them here though against a shocking Schalke team, with the model expecting a high-scoring (55% O2.5, 57% BTTS) away win (48%) - 1-3.