Brighton v Wolves: Draw looks best option at the Amex

Brighton just can't get a win at home and Dave Tindall says they may have to settle for another draw when Wolves visit the Amex on Saturday...

Brighton v Wolves
Tuesday, 17:30
Sky Sports Main Event

Brighton still winless at home

Home wins for Brighton have been difficult under Graham Potter. They managed just five last season, the second fewest in the Premier League. And this term they've dried up completely. Yes, eight games played and not a single victory.

But that doesn't translate into calling them pushovers at home.

They've drawn four of their eight, managing a gritty 1-1 with leaders/champions Liverpool. And they were desperately unlucky not to get anything in a 3-2 defeat against Manchester United.

Decent away form (they've won as many on the road as Liverpool) is keeping them above the drop zone. But Brighton will need to start accruing more home points soon otherwise a relegation battle looms.

They go into this latest round of games in 17th spot and just two above third-bottom Fulham, who have a game in hand.

Wolves struggling for goals

Wolves looked all set to gain a battling point at Old Trafford last time until Marcus Rashford's injury-time strike was deflected past Rui Patricio. That was their third straight away defeat although another of those was at Anfield.

Still, this is a bad patch for Wolves. Overall, they've lost four of their last six matches and managed just a single win, albeit an impressive one over Chelsea.

The loss of Raul Jimenez has clearly had an impact on their goal output. And let's not forget the absence of the departed Diogo Jota either. His loss is brought into focus when looking at this fixture last season. It ended 2-2 and Jota got both Wolves goals.

Visitors slight favourites

Brighton's home form can't be glossed over so they seem short enough at 2.76.

That said, on the head-to-heads they're a play.

A couple of stats...

First, in their top-flight history, Brighton have played more games (10) against Wolves without ever losing than they have any other opponents, winning seven and drawing three.

Second, Wolves have won just two of their 16 away league games against Brighton (D6 L8), picking up 1-0 victories in the Championship in September 2004 and January 2016.

If that seems all too much in the past, recent matches tell a similar story as Brighton are unbeaten in the last six (home and away) against Wolves.

Wolves are 2.92 to bank all three points.

However, it's The Draw at 3.35 that looks by far the best bet.

Both Graham Potter v Nuno Espirito Santo Premier League matches last season ended in stalemate. And in the previous campaign, the April 2019 clash also resulted in a draw.

There's an element of 'neither side can be trusted' about the bet but that's no terrible thing.

Brighton have enough about them to gain a point and Wolves aren't playing well enough to suggest they can win the game.

Under 2.5 Goals a common theme in past head-to-heads

This isn't usually a fixture for goals and, on current form, it seems unlikely that will change. Last season's 2-2 draw is the outlier as that's the only game in the last 11 meetings when the goal count has hit three or more.

Brighton have managed just seven home goals this season so it's no surprise that Under 2.5 Goals is a clear favourite at 1.61.

It's 2.52 for Over 2.5 Goals. The Both Teams to Score market is more balanced with 'Yes' at 2.08 and 'No' at 1.86.

Pick Pascal on Same Game Multi

I like a low-scoring draw in this one but slightly favour 1-1 over 0-0.

That gives scope to pick out a goalscorer and the one who offers a bit of value is Pascal Gross at 11/2 to net anytime.

Why? The German has netted in two of Brighton's last three home games, both goals coming from the spot.

Gross to score anytime in a 1-1 draw is a hefty 45.71 on the Same Game Multi.

Looking at those three recent Brighton home matches, this exact bet landed against Liverpool and was within nine minutes of coming up again in the 2-1 home loss to Southampton.

Opta Stat

Wolves have won just one of their six Premier League games since the injury to Raul Jimenez (W1 D1 L4), scoring just four goals with an average Expected Goals total of 0.81 per match. Prior to this, Wolves had won five of their 10 Premier League games this season with Jiménez playing (1.02 xG per game).



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